[arin-ppml] Statistics request regarding new entrants (was: Re: Stats request)

[Owen DeLong]

On Nov 27, 2013, at 07:17 , John Curran <jcurran at arin.net> wrote:

> On Nov 27, 2013, at 8:54 AM, Michael Richardson <mcr at sandelman.ca> wrote:
> 
>> 
>> Thank you for these stats.
>> Numbers always cause more questions.
>> 
>> John Curran <jcurran at arin.net> wrote:
>>> 682 assignments 2013 YTD, 584 (86%) to new entrants
>>> 10,353 /24s issued in assignments 2013 YTD, 6,475 /24s (63%) to new
>>> entrants
>> 
>> I'm understanding the term /24s here to be a gauge of quantity,
>> I think that most of the /24s were in fact given out in the form of /22s and
>> /21s and /20s...?
> 
> For ISPs, that is very likely the case (due to policy.)  Note this highlights 
> the potential issue for new ISP requesters, in that it is going to become (or 
> is becoming) increasingly difficult to qualify if upstreams do not provide 
> sufficient PA IPv4 space to smaller ISPs such that they can qualify for a 
> direct ARIN allocation later.

The word you are looking for there, John, is "has become". We've already seen
multiple reports from members of the community that they are deadlocked on this
issue because their upstream will not give them more space and they don't have
enough space from their upstream to qualify through ARIN.

I have seen a few examples of this, myself, as well.

This problem will definitely continue to get worse as we get closer to runout.

>> Is it easy to understand how many of the new-entrants asked for IPv6 space?
> 
> That's not readily apparent, but the number of IPv6 allocations to ISPs in total
> so far this year is 237 <https://www.arin.net/knowledge/statistics/index.html>
> so it cannot be more than about 60% of new requesters along requesting IPv6.

If they are new entrants, wouldn't it be fairly easy to look at whether or not their
ORG-ID has received IPv6? Since "have IPv4 from ARIN" is pretty much automatic
qualification for some amount of IPv6, I would say anyone who requested IPv6
and is an IPv4 new entrant likely received it to the point that any error from that
assumption could be considered statistical outliers.

>> After a new-entrant returns their PA space upstream, does ARIN have any
>> statistics (from delegation records) on what happens to that address space
>> afterwards?  Does upstream ISP deploy it to new customers? How fast?
>> Or does upstream ISP tend to use it for internal uses?  Do upstream ISPs keep
>> it quiet for a cool-down period?
> 
> ARIN has no visibility into any of the above, and note that per NRPM 4.2.2, 
> standard ISP allocations are not required to return their blocks from their 
> upstream ISP (those receiving under multihomed policy are required to return)

The return requirement is primarily enforced by the fact that ARIN will
not issue additional resources unless/until the block(s) is/are returned.

What the upstream ISP does with the returned blocks, OTOH, would be almost
impossible to scrutinize and I suspect there are likely as many different answers
as there are ISPs receiving returned space.

Owen