[arin-ppml] "Leasing" of space via non-connectivity providers (was: Re: And so it ends... )

[Ted Mittelstaedt]

On 2/4/2011 1:37 PM, Benson Schliesser wrote:
>
> On Feb 4, 2011, at 2:33 PM, George Bonser wrote:
>
>>>> Mantra:  "It doesn't matter.  V4 is dead."
>>>
>>> IPv4 is not dead.  It's an aging parent with a young child -
>>> hopefully it will be around long enough to see IPv6 reach
>>> maturity.  :)
>>
>> I guess my feeling when I wrote that is that we are possibly going
>> to get in a situation of diminishing return where more and more
>> work is being done on something that is no longer growing.  "Dead"
>> might be the wrong word but maybe we should treat it as "fully
>> mature".
>
> I think we can agree on your last paragraph.  IPv4 is no longer the
> focus for growing networks.  But my perspective is that some work
> needs to be done to keep IPv4 viable during the transition - work in
> the opposite direction of ARIN's current momentum.
>
> ARIN has done a fine job of making sure that IP addresses were not an
> advantage or hurdle to growth of the Internet.  They did this by
> rationing according to need.  Very socialist, in the best sense of
> the word.  And as a result of that policy it was easier to build
> networks, start businesses, etc; the RIR's socialist policy was a
> great boon to the capitalism that drove the Internet's growth.
>
> But the situation has changed.  Soon, we will no longer be rationing
> supply, because the supply is gone.  As a result of IPv4 maturity,
> and the impending scarcity that entails, I'd suggest RIR policy
> should be to relax control of the resource.  Allow a market to do
> what markets do best: efficiently distribute a scarce resource.
>
> The benefit of an open address market would be significant.  Hosting
> companies need IPv4 addresses more than broadband companies; Western
> countries have more IPv4 addresses than non-Western countries.  And
> without a market, organizations with excess supply have no incentive
> to redistribute it.  Markets create the incentive.
>

You talk about creating a market like someone can just sit back and
wave a wand and bang - a market is created.

Markets are created by customer demand and the bulk of the customer
demand is coming from the end users not the hosters.

And there is an ENORMOUS amount of IPv4 tied up with end users right
now.  Once the end users start shifting and letting it go, there
will be tons of IPv4 available for hosting companies.  If for example
the cellular carriers were to sunset their 3G networks tomorrow then
there would be no IPv4 shortage.

The IPv4 "value" curve is going to be very, very sharp.  Over the
next few years as supplies tighten the value of IPv4 will go up, but the 
moment that end users start accepting and using IPv6 then the value of 
IPv4 will collapse.

This is the speculators realm.  You CANNOT built a sustainable business 
on just this one spike.

If there was a chance that there would be PERMANENTLY larger amount of
demand for IPv4 than supply of it, THEN a business could be built on 
this.  But there won't be.  It is nothing more than a region to gamble
in.

Existing businesses that specialize in gambling, such as stock 
investment houses, are the ones to get involved in this.  But none of
them are moving to do it because they can see that this isn't sustainable.

Ted

> If ARIN relaxes the official position regarding IPv4 management
> policy, then we can step away from IPv4 and focus on IPv6.
>
> Cheers, -Benson
>
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