[arin-ppml] IPv4 Depletion as an ARIN policy concern

[Warren Johnson]

-----Original Message-----
From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net] On
Behalf Of michael.dillon at bt.com
Sent: Monday, October 26, 2009 4:58 AM
To: ppml at arin.net
Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] IPv4 Depletion as an ARIN policy concern

> We're running out of IPv4
> addresses and the world is not even remotely situated to start using 
> IPv6.

The world is already using IPv6 and has been for some time now.
In Europe, there is already one gigabit of traffic on IPv6 at the biggest
exchange point. Compare that to MAE-East in 1996 when the Internet was in
the papers every day.

[WDJ]
I guess if your argument that the world is using IPv6 because there's a gig
of transfer somewhere, then technically you're right.  1 gigabit of traffic
is a speck of dust on the poop of a horse fly.  I know small,
inconsequential datacenters that push a gigabit of traffic over a whisker of
fiber.  


> So I'm running a website and I am only on iPv6.  That precludes 20% of 
> the internet from getting to my website.

Please let's not let megalomania run away with us. Nobody, that means 0% of
websites that exist today, have 100% of the Internet using them. Nobody even
gets close to that. If a website is a business, or like a business, then it
has a target market, and the target market for every website is different.

[WDJ]
OK, megalomania aside, let's say it's even 10%.  What's that 10% worth to
me?


>  Am I willing to pay $20 or $30 a month for an IPv4 address so I can 
> capture the last 20%?  If I was a business concern (majority of 
> websites) I would do it of course.

Silly move. That last 20% is in Russia and China and India and Argentina and
it is not going to want to go to your website ever.

[WDJ]
OK, let us take your American-centric viewpoint out of the picture.  Suppose
I am running the site in Russia, China (with by the way, the most people on
the planet) and India.  Surely they care if their countrymen can get to
their website.  Any issue to be concerned about here, is to be concerned
about anywhere.


> Let us also consider the potential power of the ipv4 cartel.  
> Right now the big boys in the USA (ATT, Comcast, Time Warner
> Cable) are among the largest
> non-legacy IP holders. 

Now we are in cloud cuckoo land. Have you heard of the dot com collapse, the
telecom collapse, the collapse of Worldcom, etc.  There is no cartel and
there are no big boys, just some companies that haven't made too many
mistakes..... yet!

[WDJ]
This is hardly cloud cuckoo land.  You know speaking of which, I don't know
why these discussions (and other topics of discussion) get snippy.  I debate
stuff all the time with friends but don't feel the need to get snippy and
decend into name calling.  Struck a raw nerve?  I would be careful about
underestimating the potential power these people hold.  You've got a handful
of companies that control a large portion of the eyeballs in this country. I
am sure it's worse in other countries.  If you still don't get it, think to
election time in the USA and what the "Teachers Union" or the "Fireman's
Union" can get away with because some candidate wants their vote.



> Officially, these guys all have ipv6
> gameplans.
> But that is PR in my opinion. I'll tell you why.  Suppose you want to 
> start a new cable internet company.  You figure you can get 1 million 
> subscribers so you go to ARIN and you request 1 million IP addresses.  
> Ooops, sorry none left.  So you have to use ipv6. Well ipv6 isn't 
> going to cut it because the world isn't converted over enough yet.

Let me tell you what else. The world isn't connected to your network yet so
you have bigger fish to fry. In fact, ARIN won't even give you those IPv6
addresses since you haven't even built your network yet. How are you
planning to get that cable to the 1 million subscribers?

[WDJ]
Maybe I don't understand the justification process.  It would seem to me a
company like Cricket wireless appeared on the scene in the last few years
and they have data plans.  Where did they get the IPS?

If you can build out a new cable network, it is easy enough to get a vendor
to supply you with DOCSIS 3.0 boxes to connect your customers.
DOCSIS 3.0 supports IPv6
<http://www.cablelabs.com/news/pr/2006/06_pr_docsis30_080706.html>

[WDJ]
OK, IPv6.  That' sthe point, it's not IPv4.  So, you start the company and
get v6 IPs and oops there's not a critical mass of content. So your
subscribers bitch and moan and complain and you spend a lot of money on
customer service explaining it.  Eventually they leave and go to Time Warner
cable because they want the whole internet.


> Can you imagine going to the board of directors of COMCAST and telling 
> them "let's go to ipv6...
> Sure it'll open comeptition up again but we'll be promoting the well 
> being of the world".

No, I can't imagine being so dumb. Instead I would give it to him straight.
In a couple of years, you won't be able to grow your network any more unless
you start using IPv6. It ain't easy, but it does allow you to continue
growing the network. Your choice is to give up and do nothing, or to take
the hit and get IPv6 ready to go when doomsday arrives.

[WDJ]
That's one potential conversation.  Another conversation is monopoly
related.  What is so hard to believe about cable companies making a
strategic decision to block IPv6 migration?  If the top providers in the US
make the decision to leave their customers on ipv4, it goes a long way to
torpedoing the ipv6 movement.  When 30% of the US-based subscribers aren't
going to IPv6, it is a major hit.  Killing ipv6 in the US is a major
advantage for incumbants.  I'm not saying this WILL happen.  Only that it's
a potential scenario.  We shouldn't underestimate what greed will do to
people.  If you're not convinced, look at how wealth has been redistributed
in the US in the last 30 years.  People tend towards greed.  And in regards
to expanding their network, they can always make more efficient use of their
IP address space (shake loose low paying customers for example, or raise
their prices).  Likely they have too much space already anyway. Or, they can
buy up companies with IP address space.  Suppose a small datacenter has 65k,
Ips.  They buy that company for 10 or 20 million (purely for address sapce)
and use those IP addresses for something more lucrative.  Or you could merge
with a provider who has legacy space.  Welcome to Time Warner Cable
Internet, a division of Haliburton!

A few years ago, IPv6 was inevitable. Today, IPv6 is here and it works. In
three years, IPv6 will be ubiquitous. In five years IPv6 will be dominant.
And in 50 years, IPv6 will have wiped out the last pockets of IPv4.

[WDJ]
I guess we shall see :-)