[arin-ppml] IPv4 Depletion as an ARIN policy concern

[michael.dillon at bt.com]

> [WDJ]
> OK, let us take your American-centric viewpoint out of the 
> picture.  Suppose I am running the site in Russia, China 
> (with by the way, the most people on the planet) and India.  
> Surely they care if their countrymen can get to their 
> website.  Any issue to be concerned about here, is to be 
> concerned about anywhere.

Yes, lets consider China. What are they doing about IPv6?
Read this Wikipedia article for a start
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Next_Generation_Internet>
Then consider that in the Olympics, one year ago, they had
all their networking and video data feeds running on IPv6.
But, you know, America could decide to let China leave them
in the dust. The choice is there.

> [WDJ]
> That's one potential conversation.  Another conversation is 
> monopoly related.  What is so hard to believe about cable 
> companies making a strategic decision to block IPv6 
> migration?  If the top providers in the US make the decision 
> to leave their customers on ipv4, it goes a long way to 
> torpedoing the ipv6 movement.  When 30% of the US-based 
> subscribers aren't going to IPv6, it is a major hit.  Killing 
> ipv6 in the US is a major advantage for incumbants.  I'm not 
> saying this WILL happen.  Only that it's a potential 
> scenario.  We shouldn't underestimate what greed will do to 
> people.  

Yep, China would just love it if the USA would stick with IPv4.
In fact, they may even do something behind the scenes to help
the greedy big boys make that decision. It will be GSM all over
again with the rest of the world enjoying ubiquitous mobile 
phone coverage with text messaging and cameraphones for many years
while the USA lags behind squabbling about the "best" way to
do it. In the end, Chinese companies have done well in the global
GSM market. If the USA wants to stick with IPv4, then China will
no doubt be happy to step in and help the rest of the world 
scale up their IPv6 deployments.

This is no joke. This is real economic life in the 21st century.

It is better for all of us if everybody jumps on the bandwagon
this time and deploys IPv6. The potential market for everyone
will be larger and you won't have artificial technical barriers
blocking you ability to win a share of that market, such as the
debacle of the history of US cellphone deployment.

--Michael Dillon