[arin-ppml] IPv4 Depletion as an ARIN policy concern

[michael.dillon at bt.com]

> We're running out of IPv4 
> addresses and the world is not even remotely situated to 
> start using IPv6.  

The world is already using IPv6 and has been for some time now.
In Europe, there is already one gigabit of traffic on IPv6 at
the biggest exchange point. Compare that to MAE-East in 1996 
when the Internet was in the papers every day.

> So I'm running a website and I am only on 
> iPv6.  That precludes 20% of the internet from getting to my 
> website.

Please let's not let megalomania run away with us. Nobody,
that means 0% of websites that exist today, have 100% of the
Internet using them. Nobody even gets close to that. If a website
is a business, or like a business, then it has a target market,
and the target market for every website is different.

>  Am I willing to pay $20 or $30 a month for an IPv4 
> address so I can capture the last 20%?  If I was a business 
> concern (majority of websites) I would do it of course.

Silly move. That last 20% is in Russia and China and India and
Argentina and it is not going to want to go to your website ever.

> Let us also consider the potential power of the ipv4 cartel.  
> Right now the big boys in the USA (ATT, Comcast, Time Warner 
> Cable) are among the largest
> non-legacy IP holders. 

Now we are in cloud cuckoo land. Have you heard of the dot com
collapse, the telecom collapse, the collapse of Worldcom, etc.
There is no cartel and there are no big boys, just some companies
that haven't made too many mistakes..... yet!

> Officially, these guys all have ipv6 
> gameplans.
> But that is PR in my opinion. I'll tell you why.  Suppose you 
> want to start a new cable internet company.  You figure you 
> can get 1 million subscribers so you go to ARIN and you 
> request 1 million IP addresses.  Ooops, sorry none left.  So 
> you have to use ipv6. Well ipv6 isn't going to cut it because 
> the world isn't converted over enough yet.

Let me tell you what else. The world isn't connected to your network
yet so you have bigger fish to fry. In fact, ARIN won't even give
you those IPv6 addresses since you haven't even built your network
yet. How are you planning to get that cable to the 1 million
subscribers?

If you can build out a new cable network, it is easy enough to get
a vendor to supply you with DOCSIS 3.0 boxes to connect your customers.
DOCSIS 3.0 supports IPv6
<http://www.cablelabs.com/news/pr/2006/06_pr_docsis30_080706.html>

> Can you imagine going to the board of 
> directors of COMCAST and telling them "let's go to ipv6... 
> Sure it'll open comeptition up again but we'll be promoting 
> the well being of the world".  

No, I can't imagine being so dumb. Instead I would give it to him
straight. In a couple of years, you won't be able to grow your
network any more unless you start using IPv6. It ain't easy, but
it does allow you to continue growing the network. Your choice is
to give up and do nothing, or to take the hit and get IPv6 ready
to go when doomsday arrives.

A few years ago, IPv6 was inevitable. Today, IPv6 is here and it
works. In three years, IPv6 will be ubiquitous. In five years IPv6
will be dominant. And in 50 years, IPv6 will have wiped out the last
pockets of IPv4.

--Michael Dillon