[arin-ppml] IPv4 Depletion as an ARIN policy concern

[Warren Johnson]

I'm not so sure about how effective politics will be.  You have about 190+
countries in the world. Getting the various political bodies to agree on
some policy is going to be tough. Hell, you can't get 190 people in a room
and get them to agree on what's for lunch.  Even if you consider that the
real stakeholders are really just a fraction of those 190 countries, you
still are talking many many people with various competing positions all
trying to agree on something.




This is for a contingency plan which means the assumptions for these factors
are deliberately worst case. For contingency planning, we assume that
returns don't match demands, that addresses aren't readily available on the
transfer market and that IPv6 adoption in whatever state it's in hasn't yet
adequately suppressed IPv4 demand.

As for the political winds, that's a no-brainer. Before any contingency
activates, they'll be blowing towards "Do Something Right Now Or Else." 

-----Original Message-----
From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net] On
Behalf Of William Herrin
Sent: Friday, October 23, 2009 10:37 AM
To: Joe Maimon
Cc: ppml at arin.net
Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] IPv4 Depletion as an ARIN policy concern

On Fri, Oct 23, 2009 at 9:41 AM, Joe Maimon <jmaimon at chl.com> wrote:
> William Herrin wrote:
>> Then before we talk about what a draconian address recovery policy 
>> looks like, perhaps we should consider the circumstances under which 
>> such a policy should be employed.
>>
>> My thought is that a darp should be activated when all of the 
>> following conditions are met:
>>
>> 1. IANA has allocated the last /8 to an RIR 2. ARIN is unable to meet 
>> a qualified request for a /18 or larger.
>> 3. The BoT determines that blocks of ARIN-managed IP addresses of /24 
>> and larger are not generally available for purchase via the transfer 
>> market for less than $10/address.
>
> I really dont know what price per address would be considered 
> reasonable per target market for ipv4 and at which point in time it will
go up or down.
> Already, reputable companies are charging more for static blocks of 
> addresses, at a significant markup from their ARIN prices (but at 
> prices ranging from .5 per address to .001 per address thats easily
achievable).

The exact number isn't all that important. The number we pick should be a
price at which consensus places it well past reasonable for cell phones to
have public IPv4 addresses that the registrant gets to hold on to at pennies
per. Start at $1 and keep adding until only the loonies say, "My cell phone
should have a public IP even at that price."


> We should consider some other factors, such as whether or not the 
> returns and reclaims, which are fairly significant even if trickles in 
> the bucket of current demand, will dry up after depletion and 
> resulting value changes for ipv4, whether IPv6 adoption is actually 
> measurably increasing and how the political and public winds are blowing.

This is for a contingency plan which means the assumptions for these factors
are deliberately worst case. For contingency planning, we assume that
returns don't match demands, that addresses aren't readily available on the
transfer market and that IPv6 adoption in whatever state it's in hasn't yet
adequately suppressed IPv4 demand.

As for the political winds, that's a no-brainer. Before any contingency
activates, they'll be blowing towards "Do Something Right Now Or Else."


> And fee changes should also be a factor considered well before darp. 
> But that is not policy.

That's a possible avenue for "how" and I think there are some policy-level
things we can do with dollar signs. But before we explore "how," I'd like to
zero in on "when." Irrespective of what action we think ARIN should take,
what criteria should compel ARIN to take further action beyond allowing the
market to do its thing?

Regards,
Bill Herrin



--
William D. Herrin ................ herrin at dirtside.com  bill at herrin.us
3005 Crane Dr. ...................... Web: <http://bill.herrin.us/> Falls
Church, VA 22042-3004 _______________________________________________
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