[arin-ppml] IPv4 Depletion as an ARIN policy concern

[William Herrin]

On Fri, Oct 23, 2009 at 9:41 AM, Joe Maimon <jmaimon at chl.com> wrote:
> William Herrin wrote:
>> Then before we talk about what a draconian address recovery policy
>> looks like, perhaps we should consider the circumstances under which
>> such a policy should be employed.
>>
>> My thought is that a darp should be activated when all of the
>> following conditions are met:
>>
>> 1. IANA has allocated the last /8 to an RIR
>> 2. ARIN is unable to meet a qualified request for a /18 or larger.
>> 3. The BoT determines that blocks of ARIN-managed IP addresses of /24
>> and larger are not generally available for purchase via the transfer
>> market for less than $10/address.
>
> I really dont know what price per address would be considered reasonable per
> target market for ipv4 and at which point in time it will go up or down.
> Already, reputable companies are charging more for static blocks of
> addresses, at a significant markup from their ARIN prices (but at prices
> ranging from .5 per address to .001 per address thats easily achievable).

The exact number isn't all that important. The number we pick should
be a price at which consensus places it well past reasonable for cell
phones to have public IPv4 addresses that the registrant gets to hold
on to at pennies per. Start at $1 and keep adding until only the
loonies say, "My cell phone should have a public IP even at that
price."


> We should consider some other factors, such as whether or not the returns
> and reclaims, which are fairly significant even if trickles in the bucket of
> current demand, will dry up after depletion and resulting value changes for
> ipv4, whether IPv6 adoption is actually measurably increasing and how the
> political and public winds are blowing.

This is for a contingency plan which means the assumptions for these
factors are deliberately worst case. For contingency planning, we
assume that returns don't match demands, that addresses aren't readily
available on the transfer market and that IPv6 adoption in whatever
state it's in hasn't yet adequately suppressed IPv4 demand.

As for the political winds, that's a no-brainer. Before any
contingency activates, they'll be blowing towards "Do Something Right
Now Or Else."


> And fee changes should also be a factor considered well before darp. But
> that is not policy.

That's a possible avenue for "how" and I think there are some
policy-level things we can do with dollar signs. But before we explore
"how," I'd like to zero in on "when." Irrespective of what action we
think ARIN should take, what criteria should compel ARIN to take
further action beyond allowing the market to do its thing?

Regards,
Bill Herrin



-- 
William D. Herrin ................ herrin at dirtside.com  bill at herrin.us
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