[arin-ppml] debunking the myth that Moore's law helps

[Davis, Terry L]

John

Blu-ray yes but I think full 3-D communication and videos are out at least beyond 10 years.

Take care
Terry

> -----Original Message-----
> From: John Schnizlein [mailto:schnizlein at isoc.org]
> Sent: Friday, December 18, 2009 1:35 PM
> To: Davis, Terry L
> Cc: 'Lee Dilkie'; Michel Py; arin-ppml at arin.net
> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] debunking the myth that Moore's law helps
> 
> 20 years seems too long an estimate IMHO.
> Don't you think that somebody will want to download the equivalent of
> the 3D Blu-ray standard format that was announced today, within about
> a year of being able to get the disc?
> 
> John
> 
> On 2009Dec18, at 3:04 PM, Davis, Terry L wrote:
> 
> > Lee
> >
> > I suspect that 3-D imaging systems will be the next really big leap;
> > hopefully we have 20 or so years before that occurs.
> >
> > Take care
> > Terry
> >
> >> -----Original Message-----
> >> From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:arin-ppml-
> >> bounces at arin.net] On
> >> Behalf Of Lee Dilkie
> >> Sent: Friday, December 18, 2009 11:18 AM
> >> To: Michel Py
> >> Cc: arin-ppml at arin.net
> >> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] debunking the myth that Moore's law helps
> >>
> >> I wonder how much b/w to the home is actually needed and if there
> >> is a
> >> natural demand "limit". It seems to me that once b/w to the home
> >> reaches
> >> realtime HD video there's not really much more that is required
> >> (except
> >> for separate channels for the kids, of course). If you think about
> >> it,
> >> there's only historically been two drivers for b/w throughout the
> >> history of communications. Ignoring the original low b/w uses, morse
> >> code, teletype, etc, we have realtime voice and realtime video. For
> >> 80
> >> years, video has stabilized at about 3 Mhz b/w and it's only with the
> >> advent of HD that we have exceeded that (is that true? I'm not sure,
> >> considering compression and all).
> >>
> >> Is it really reasonable to expect future b/w demands to the home to
> >> keep
> >> going up and up? What drivers do you see for this?
> >>
> >> Just curious.
> >>
> >> -lee