[arin-ppml] debunking the myth that Moore's law helps

[John Schnizlein]

20 years seems too long an estimate IMHO.
Don't you think that somebody will want to download the equivalent of  
the 3D Blu-ray standard format that was announced today, within about  
a year of being able to get the disc?

John

On 2009Dec18, at 3:04 PM, Davis, Terry L wrote:

> Lee
>
> I suspect that 3-D imaging systems will be the next really big leap;  
> hopefully we have 20 or so years before that occurs.
>
> Take care
> Terry
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:arin-ppml- 
>> bounces at arin.net] On
>> Behalf Of Lee Dilkie
>> Sent: Friday, December 18, 2009 11:18 AM
>> To: Michel Py
>> Cc: arin-ppml at arin.net
>> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] debunking the myth that Moore's law helps
>>
>> I wonder how much b/w to the home is actually needed and if there  
>> is a
>> natural demand "limit". It seems to me that once b/w to the home  
>> reaches
>> realtime HD video there's not really much more that is required  
>> (except
>> for separate channels for the kids, of course). If you think about  
>> it,
>> there's only historically been two drivers for b/w throughout the
>> history of communications. Ignoring the original low b/w uses, morse
>> code, teletype, etc, we have realtime voice and realtime video. For  
>> 80
>> years, video has stabilized at about 3 Mhz b/w and it's only with the
>> advent of HD that we have exceeded that (is that true? I'm not sure,
>> considering compression and all).
>>
>> Is it really reasonable to expect future b/w demands to the home to  
>> keep
>> going up and up? What drivers do you see for this?
>>
>> Just curious.
>>
>> -lee