[arin-ppml] IPv4 is depleted today

Ted Mittelstaedt tedm at ipinc.net
Tue Sep 2 14:58:28 EDT 2008

> -----Original Message-----
> From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net 
> [mailto:arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net] On Behalf Of Kevin Kargel
> Sent: Tuesday, September 02, 2008 6:56 AM
> To: arin-ppml at arin.net
> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] IPv4 is depleted today
> <<Enormous snipping leaving hugely out of context quote>> 
> >>You are right.  We should just kill the transfer policy idea and be
> done with it.
> >>Ted
> I tend to agree Ted, I think for the most part nobody is 
> going to do anything real until AFTER they are denied new 
> IPv4 addresses..  And there is nothing we can do about it.
> Change is painful for the human mind, and people will avoid 
> change and risk for as long as absolutely possible.  The 
> runout is going to happen, and it is going to hurt.  It would 
> hurt a lot less if people were prepared, in fact it could be 
> downright painless, but we don't really have a right to force 
> anyone to prepare.  
> The best thing I can see to do is to let IPv4 run out 
> naturally, and when that happens sit back and watch the 
> show..  You and I will be prepared, our customers will be 
> able to get to most content providers, there is not much more 
> we can do.
> IPv4 will not stop working, it will continue on.  Business in 
> the Internet will be as usual.  The only change will be a 
> great slowing in NEW hosts.  
> The human animal is basically lazy.  They will move to IPv6 
> when it is less work than not moving, and not a moment before.

Absolutely, but this is an equation with 2 sides - one side is
ease of moving to IPv6, the other side is ease of NOT moving
to IPv6 and continuing to use IPv4.

It is imperative that our policy making strive to increase
ease of moving to IPv6 and decrease ease of staying with IPv4.

A liberalized transfer policy does nothing to increase ease of
moving to IPv6, all it does is make it easier to stay on IPv4.


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