[arin-ppml] Creating a market for IPv4 address space in absence of routing table entry market

[Milton L Mueller]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: bmanning at vacation.karoshi.com
[mailto:bmanning at vacation.karoshi.com]
> Sent: Sunday, June 15, 2008 9:02 PM
> To: Milton L Mueller
> Cc: John Curran; PPML ppml
> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] Creating a market for IPv4 address space in
> absence of routing table entry market
> 
> your statement, "who is going to put down [] money for addresses ...
that
> have a substantial risk of non-routability."  is key.  Since no one
can 
> assure routability -outside- their own infrastructure, why would
anyone
> buy addresses?

that's a question you need to let the market actors answer.

I do recognize that there is a real possibility that if transfers are
authorized no one (or few) will use them. This happened with the
broadcast spectrum in New Zealand; though spectrum transfers were legal
the transactions costs of re-configuring limited geographical spectrum
rights were too high to fool with, due to high levels of interdependence
with the rights of many other rights-holders.* 

Another possible reason that the market will turn out to be a dud is
that no one will want to give up address space that they have; all the
big holders will just keep holding on. There may be only prospective
buyers and no sellers. 

But this kind "failure" of an address transfer market doesn't do any
harm; it just leaves things pretty much where they are now. If it turns
out that there is a huge pent up demand for address transfers, on the
other hand, and ARIN fails to act, the risks are far worse. 

We have very strong reasons to assume that people do want to buy
addresses. We know less about whether people will sell addresses. I
agree, it's an uncertain situation. 

A more glib answer to your initial question is that since no one can
assure routability outside their own infrastructure, why would they ever
get addresses from ARIN? I.e. the routability problem is a problem with
or without transfer markets.

* Anyone interested in a detailed study of NZ spectrum markets can write
me off line and I'll send it when I get back to the US in a few weeks.