[ppml] Legacy /24s

[Bill Woodcock]

If it's helpful, we (PCH) believed there to be about 8,400 ASNs in the world which were providing transit services, last I checked. From experience, I can tell you that the long tail of the curve of how-many-full-table-routers-per-ISP-of-that-type is between one and three. So, really roughly, the 8,300 smaller of those 8,400 might be contributing 20,000 routers to the total.  It's still quite plausible, however, that the top hundred are contributing another 180,000, so I don't dispute 200,000 as a possible total.  I think if I were to guess, I'd guess somewhere between 120,000 and 250,000.

But that's just a guess, supported only by what you see above, and no more detailed analysis. And this is my first email of the morning, which should always be viwed with some additional degree of scepticism.  :-)


                         -Bill

Please excuse the brevity of this message; I typed it on my pager. I could be more loquacious, but then I'd crash my car.    

-----Original Message-----
From: John Curran <jcurran at istaff.org>

Date: Sat, 1 Sep 2007 18:58:07 
To:"William Herrin" <arin-contact at dirtside.com>
Cc:"ppml at arin.net" <ppml at arin.net>
Subject: Re: [ppml] Legacy /24s


At 2:40 PM -0400 9/1/07, William Herrin wrote:
>Lets put some numbers to this so that we're arguing facts rather than opinions.

Nice analysis, by the way...  One comment, see below.

>...
>The number of routes and ASes in the DFZ implies that there are
>somewhere between 200,000 and 300,000 routers in the DFZ.

Hmm.  Could you expand on this part of the calculation?   I know
lots of backbones operating in the default-free zone, and can take
an estimate at number of routers each, but I'm not certain that
the product gets us to 200000 routers.  Also, there are often IGP
routers which don't participate in global routing but have the entry
purely for internal traffic engineering...  Is it fair to reflect the cost
of upgrading such routers onto the cost for a global routing entry?

/John
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