[ppml] Soft and hard landings, was: Re: Policy Proposal: IPv4 Soft Landing

[David Conrad]

Iljitsch,

On May 18, 2007, at 2:34 PM, Iljitsch van Beijnum wrote:
> You only look at the cost part without considering the benefit. Apart
> from less tangible things like being a technology leader or being
> prepared, the benefit of adopting IPv6 is negligible: you can only
> reach a tiny part of the internet over IPv6: something in the order
> of 0.1%. So the cost difference between IPv4 and IPv6 can never drive
> IPv6 adoption.

Right.  As stated in the rationale section, one of the things the  
"Soft Landing" proposal tries to do is encourage ISPs to break the  
chicken-and-egg cycle by making IPv6 services and connectivity a pre- 
requisite for obtaining additional IPv4 space.  Since the RIRs have  
no real way of directly influencing end users, this is the pragmatic  
approach.

[tortured analogies deleted]

> We're currently still in the situation where people can fool
> themselves into thinking that we're not going to run out of IPv4
> space within the next decade or so, hence they don't have to take any
> action. Implementing any measures that postpone the moment of running
> out only give people more excuses to ignore IPv6.

Perhaps I'm overly optimistic, but I don't think any of the folks who  
would be affected by "Soft Landing" have any illusions about running  
out of IPv4 space.  What "Soft Landing" tries to do is:

- provide a lengthened runway via increased efficiency
- give addressing folks within ISPs ammunition to explain to their  
business folks why taking IPv6 seriously is a good idea

My impression is that the business folks at ISPs focus on either what  
brings in new revenues or what drives down costs.  Since IPv6 doesn't  
appear to be able to bring in new revenues, the only other option I  
can think of to get their attention is to cause costs to increase.   
Since costs for obtaining IPv4 are going to increase when the free  
pool runs out regardless of what the RIRs do, it seems the easiest  
way to get the business folks' attention so that there can be some  
preparation is to raise the cost of obtaining IPv4 before the crisis  
hits.

Rgds,
-drc