[arin-discuss] urgency of IPv6

[Ted Mittelstaedt]

On 6/25/2010 11:38 AM, Lee Howard wrote:
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> ----- Original Message ----
>> From: Ted Mittelstaedt<tedm at ipinc.net>
>> To: arin-discuss at arin.net
>> Sent: Thu, June 24, 2010 3:19:43 PM
>> Subject: Re: [arin-discuss] urgency of IPv6
>>
>> In the US the ISP
>> market is at saturation, it has
>> matured and nobody is really
>> growing unless someone else is shrinking.
>
> The Caribbean is growing at a good pace.
> See also any statistics about growth, and make sure
> to include devices with IP capabilities (handhelds,
> consoles, etc.).
>
>
>> I can easily imagine a scenario where the rest of the
>> world ends up moving to IPv6 and sells it's IPv4 back to ISP's in
>> the US via the transfer market.
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> Potential transfer recipients in the US will be
> competing against potential recipients within the
> region of origin.
>
>> Internet experience
>> consists mainly of accessing Hulu, Ebay, and CNN,
>> since clearly
>> the content providers are going to be the very last ones
>> to go to IPv6-only.
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> I believe Hulu is owned by NBC Universal, in process
> of being acquired by Comcast, which is deploying IPv6.
> "The public-facing eBay Web site will be upgraded for what's called
> dual-stack IPv4 and IPv6 access in 2011.
> "
> http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/020410-ipv6-web-sites.html?page=1
> CNN is served by a CDN, so it will be available when the CDN is.
>
> It is not clear that content providers will be last.  There
> are good reasons for content providers to prefer IPv6 over
> the alternatives.
>

If the content providers are getting any money for providing
content (ie: advertising revenue) then they will definitely be
last to drop IPv4.

Think Beta vs VHS, and think Records vs CD's.  As long as there
were significant numbers of customers who wanted to buy their
movies on Beta, stores sold Beta tapes.  Record stores loved
CD's and pushed them (less retail space) but they didn't get
rid of records until customers stopped buying them.

And even today I picked up a coupon page from the daily
newspaper and the local 5 and dime is STILL ADVERTISING
brand new blank VHS tape.  Are there still people out there
recording TV shows on VHS?  Obviously enough of them for a
retailer to pay money advertising VHS tape! THAT one really floored me.

Ted

> Lee
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> Again, not a Board opinion, just mine.
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