[arin-ppml] The annual limit on total maintenance fees for legacy number resources under the ARIN fee schedule

[Joe Maimon]

hostmaster at uneedus.com wrote:

>
> The "Silent Upgrade" is what is currently driving the traffic shift
> toward IPv6 on a lot of networks.  Most customers do not care or know
> what protocol is delivering their bits, they just want them to arrive.

Essentially, IPv6 is an optimization, not a replacement.

>
> Eventually market forces, especially in places with shortages of IPv4
> addresses and CGnat will eventually get operators to charge extra for
> access to IPv4, because of the extra cost of CGnat and CALEA logging
> costs. DOCSYS 3+ require IPv6 as well as 4G+ mobile networks, which
> will also push more traffic toward IPv6.  These factors also tend to
> make IPv6 faster for these users due to lack of CGnat, which will
> further drive more content providers to provide native IPv6 for speed
> reasons.

To the extent that the optimization IPv6 brings these organizations 
capex and opex reduction to make IPv4+IPv6 less expensive overall than 
IPv4 only, that should be when IPv4 enters legacy mode.

> I think we will eventually get to an IPv6 dominant network, but I am
> sure also it will not happen until well after my retirement.

I think another decade is a reasonable guess, but who knows.

And since it is a fair and widely held assumption that we have at least 
5-15 years of IPv4 prime time, trying to improve our experience using it 
for that duration seems to me to be a worthy goal.

Joe