[arin-ppml] DoD to sell 13 x /8 of its IPv4 Blocks over the next 10 years and need for ARIN-2019-19

[Owen DeLong]

> On Dec 19, 2019, at 04:03 , hostmaster at uneedus.com wrote:
> 
> I see this as an instant headache for a lot of larger network operators who are using portions of this DOD space like RFC1918 addresses.  Once these addresses become public, those operators are going to have to renumber that space. That is 16.9 million hosts per block used.

I have exactly zero sympathy for such operators.

> Maybe these operators will take the lead of the DOD and move those hosts to IPv6 instead, where there is plenty of space.  Since the space is already not directly addressable, it would simply be a matter of changing the existing NAT to use v6 as its input, or adding a v6 address to their proxy servers.

Seems entirely reasonable, but somehow unlikely.

> With all this space likely coming to the market soon, now is the time to adopt the proposal to require v6 use before allowing anyone to receive this v4 space.  While this will help the v4 supply, DOD may find the price collapsed at the end of the 10 year period if IPv6 uptake increases due to DOD and other use of IPv6 instead of IPv4.

The problem here is that the proposal doesn’t really do anything to advance IPv6, it just forces people who don’t want it to take it and put it aside on a shelf.

Yes, you can change the shape and cost of the shelf, but you can’t really prevent them from putting it on a shelf.

> As far as those who suggest the IPv4 space problem is solved, based on use rates before runout, this may buy us 2 or 3 years.  However the DOD has 10 years to sell, and by then, the IPv4 market may already be collapsed to near zero levels depending upon the uptake of IPv6, which will be lead by DOD purchases of IPv6 only equipment to follow the mandate.

We can only hope.

Owen