[arin-ppml] Queue depth report?

[John Curran]

On Sep 30, 2014, at 11:46 AM, Mike Burns <mike at iptrading.com> wrote:

> Hi John,
> 
> Thanks for the info.
> I don't think Geoff is properly adjusting for ARIN's team review rate, which is around 200 per month.

Geoff's numbers are based allocation rate.

> Reading between the lines, I think this is about ARIN's max carrying rate without schedule slippage.

We actually have been fairly creative (e.g. moving IPv6 and ASN 
requests to additional resources to free up more time for IPv4
requests); there are other similar options if needed, so I'm 
going to disagree on that assertion of a "max carrying rate."

> Considering the nature of the remaining pool dregs, ARIN will be needing to do around 1200 team reviews of the /23 and /24s which will remain in inventory near the end.

The amount of time to process such requests is highly dependent
on the preparation level of the requester and the policy which
is defined by this community; both of these are to-be-determined.

> So as I see it, there is at least six months AFTER all the larger blocks go away before we are empty.

It could be much longer, depending on the requests for smaller 
blocks versus more mid-sized (which will end up on the waiting 
list)

> The projected date of the ides of March is too early, as it is less than six months from now.

Complete runout is unlikely to be cleanly predictable; e.g. in
the APNIC region, they still have IPv4 resources but are issued 
per their austerity policies.  In the ARIN region, we'll be "out"
when the first request is approved but there not IPv4 resources
to fulfill the request and the waiting list policy is triggered.

> The projection difficulties that result from the disparate nature of allocation sizes diminishes as we reach the dregs.

See above... Geoff has been predicting effective depletion based
on run rate, not complete lack of IPv4 resources in the region.

Thanks!
/John

John Curran
President and CEO
ARIN