[arin-ppml] IPv4 Transfer Policy Change to Keep Whois Accurate

[Mike Burns]

Hi Owen, jumping in here,

> On 5/19/2011 2:21 PM, Owen DeLong wrote:
>>
>>> The number of buyers with need will
>>> exceed the available address space.
>
>> 1) You can't prove that, and,

>>I can, actually. The available IPv4 space that could end up on a transfer 
>>market is bounded
>>by those addresses not currently in use. As such, the rather limited 
>>supply is well known.

Except you don't have any information on how efficiently those addresses are 
used.
It could very well be that a great deal more efficiency can be found, 
freeing up more than the unrouted address space.
Like those unfortunate souls who will find themselves behind CGN will likely 
enrich their ISP, who can sell as many addresses into the market as he can 
without losing too many customers who demand non-CGN access.
Or even the deployment of plain old NAT could free up addresses which are 
currnently being  advertised now for sale later.

>The pool of buyers is known to be monotonically increasing and ARIN's 
>average issuance
>of ~190,000 IPv4 /24s each year by ARIN would indicate an annual market 
>demand for 25%
>of the maximum possible pool from which to develop such a market (roughly 
>12 /8s)

>Therefore, even if we assume that all possible addresses will come on the 
>market with
>your policy, the supply will be gone in 4 years or less. Any churn beyond 
>that would leave
>a need-gap behind unless it is the result of successful abandonment of 
>IPv4. At the point
>where organizations can begin successful abandonment of IPv4 altogether, 
>the market
>will invariably collapse anyway.

And you believe this and still think there is a danger from speculators? 
When the market is at most 4 years in duration and then subject to collapse 
due to IPv6?


Regards,
Mike