[arin-ppml] Just a reminder of some quick mathematics for IPv4 thatshows the long term impossibility of it

[Mike Burns]

Hi Ted,

I don't think anybody made the claim that IPv4 had enough unique addresses 
to give one to each person on the planet.
Nor was there a claim that the Invisible Hand would create any address 
space.
However, there is enough space to give everybody their own unique IPv4 
address + TCP port.
Even their own thousand unique IPv4 address+TCP ports.
3.8billion times 65,000 is a very large number.
Food for thought?

Regards,
Mike



----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Ted Mittelstaedt" <tedm at ipinc.net>
To: <arin-ppml at arin.net>
Sent: Thursday, May 12, 2011 4:23 PM
Subject: [arin-ppml] Just a reminder of some quick mathematics for IPv4 
thatshows the long term impossibility of it


> From the following website:
>
> http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm
>
> Notice - as of 2009/2010 (last time these figures were updated):
>
>
> WORLD INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION STATISTICS WORLD TOTAL
>
> Population     Internet Users Latest Data     Penetration (% Population)
> 6,845,609,960   1,966,514,816                   28.7 %
>
>
> From the beginning of public access of the Internet in 1995 we
> are now about a year away from complete global IPv4 runout.  Assuming
> maybe by then we are at a global penetration of 35% of maybe 7 billion
> people, that's still only about 2.5 billion people on the Internet.
>
> So how exactly do we get the other 4.5 billion people on the Internet
> using IPv4?
>
> The last "legacy" IP block was handed out in 1997.  To assume that
> unused legacy IPv4 will cover the remaining 4.5 billion people assumes
> that 65% of the usable IPv4 space was handed out before 1997 and the
> remaining 35% of it was handed out from 1998 until next year.  It is
> a ridiculous assumption completely unsupported by the math.
>
> But, don't let something like mathematics bog your day down!  It's much
> more fun to believe that Adam Smith's "Invisible hand" will come sailing
> in at the last minute and manufacture IPv4 out of thin air!  ;-)
>
>
> Ted
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> PPML
> You are receiving this message because you are subscribed to
> the ARIN Public Policy Mailing List (ARIN-PPML at arin.net).
> Unsubscribe or manage your mailing list subscription at:
> http://lists.arin.net/mailman/listinfo/arin-ppml
> Please contact info at arin.net if you experience any issues.