[arin-ppml] Just a reminder of some quick mathematics for IPv4 that shows the long term impossibility of it

Ted Mittelstaedt tedm at ipinc.net
Thu May 12 16:23:52 EDT 2011

 From the following website:


Notice - as of 2009/2010 (last time these figures were updated):


Population     Internet Users Latest Data     Penetration (% Population)
6,845,609,960   1,966,514,816                   28.7 %

 From the beginning of public access of the Internet in 1995 we
are now about a year away from complete global IPv4 runout.  Assuming
maybe by then we are at a global penetration of 35% of maybe 7 billion
people, that's still only about 2.5 billion people on the Internet.

So how exactly do we get the other 4.5 billion people on the Internet
using IPv4?

The last "legacy" IP block was handed out in 1997.  To assume that
unused legacy IPv4 will cover the remaining 4.5 billion people assumes
that 65% of the usable IPv4 space was handed out before 1997 and the
remaining 35% of it was handed out from 1998 until next year.  It is
a ridiculous assumption completely unsupported by the math.

But, don't let something like mathematics bog your day down!  It's much
more fun to believe that Adam Smith's "Invisible hand" will come sailing
in at the last minute and manufacture IPv4 out of thin air!  ;-)


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