[arin-ppml] Semi-serious proposal to start 2011

[Tony Hain]

There is a simple way to deal with all the list noise on pp124 & 125, as
well as reduce the wasted time and energy of the ARIN staff while we are at
it .... Transfer all remaining ARIN IPv4 resources in a split between Lacnic
& Afrinic today, and move on. The useless efforts to micromanage the end of
the pool are not doing anyone any good, and certainly not motivating the
deployment of IPv6 as much as a solid 'sorry we have no more' answer from
ARIN would. 

It is time to stop focusing on the past and just let it go. 

Tony


> -----Original Message-----
> From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net] On
> Behalf Of Bill Sandiford
> Sent: Thursday, December 30, 2010 6:54 PM
> To: 'John Curran'
> Cc: arin ppml
> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] ARIN IPv4 Number Resource Inventory (was: PP
> 124 Preliminary Info)
> 
> Thanks John:
> 
> I knew it was a tough question that didn't have a simple answer.  The
> answer given is much appreciated.
> 
> Regards,
> Bill
> 
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: John Curran [mailto:jcurran at arin.net]
> > Sent: Thursday, December 30, 2010 8:44 PM
> > To: Bill Sandiford
> > Cc: arin ppml
> > Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] ARIN IPv4 Number Resource Inventory (was: PP
> > 124 Preliminary Info)
> >
> > On Dec 30, 2010, at 7:50 PM, Bill Sandiford wrote:
> >
> > > John:
> > >
> > > Do we know what ARIN's current IPv4 issue rate is?
> >
> > Bill -
> >
> >   You'll get very different answers depending on the time
> >   period you pick to rate average. The IPv4 issue rate over
> >   the last few years for ARIN has been on or under 2 /8's
> >   per year (data through '09 is here: 64K /24's = /8,
> >   <https://www.arin.net/knowledge/stats.pdf>)   If you
> >   want to consider the rate over CY 2010, it's been lower
> >   but increasingly rapidly towards the end of the year
> >   <https://www.arin.net/knowledge/statistics/index.html>
> >   Note that there are quite a few factors that make the
> >   "current rate" a horrible predictor: it does not take
> >   seasonality of requests into account, nor does it show
> >   the human factors impact of various policies passing
> >   (until well after the fact when they show up in the
> >   actual allocations made.)
> >
> >   FYI - For those who really want some raw data, it is all
> >   available via the ARIN-issued mailing list (also listed
> >   on that web page.) Feel free to run the actual daily
> >   allocations into whatever model you feel most appropriate...
> >
> >   If you'd like an estimate based on my own judgement of
> >   the most recent activity, the current "instantaneous"
> >   issue rate is probably closer to one /8 every two to
> >   three months (which implies about 9 months from IANA
> >   depletion to ARIN depletion.)  I hesitate to state even
> >   that much publicly, since a handful of requests can
> >   dramatically impact that outlook in *either* direction.
> >   Going into 2012, any parties that want to continue grow
> >   their Internet business should be serious looking into
> >   IPv6 and (if needed) the limited options that will exist
> >   for IPv4 address transfer.  This is not drill: we are
> >   going to fully deplete the available IPv4 address pool
> >   in the very near future.
> >
> > Best wishes,
> > /John
> >
> > John Curran
> > President and CEO
> > ARIN
> >
> >
> 
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