[arin-ppml] "Leasing" of space via non-connectivity providers (was: Re: And so it ends... )
bensons at queuefull.net
Fri Feb 4 23:39:06 EST 2011
On Feb 4, 2011, at 7:48 PM, Owen DeLong wrote:
>> The IPv4 "value" curve is going to be very, very sharp. Over the
>> next few years as supplies tighten the value of IPv4 will go up, but the moment that end users start accepting and using IPv6 then the value of IPv4 will collapse.
> The value curve on IPv4 addresses will also serve as an incentive to deploy IPv6.
That's exactly correct, in my opinion.
RIR policy has kept the cost of IPv4 addresses lower than they would be "naturally", e.g. if valued as a commodity with growing demand and decreasing supply. When the RIR is no longer a source of addresses, their cost skyrockets compared to historical norms. It's like a balloon held at the bottom of a swimming pool.
And as Owen points out, when businesses recognize the cost to continue deploying IPv4, it becomes an obvious incentive to transition to IPv6. In fact, IPv6 is the only way (as far as I'm aware) that a service provider can continue to operate under historical economic models (i.e. when addresses were "free"). Choosing to continue deploying IPv4 will require investment, in addresses and/or NATs.
Sadly, because we've waited too long to grow IPv6 penetration to the inflection point ("the moment that end users start accepting and using IPv6"), people will still need to deploy IPv4. Vendors will make money on NATs. And people will find ways to get addresses - one way or another.
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