[arin-ppml] Advisory Council Meeting Results - January 2011

Tony Hain alh-ietf at tndh.net
Thu Feb 3 19:37:04 EST 2011

I would never claim my projections are any more accurate than Geoff's. We
are both working from the same data set with slightly different models. As
someone put it, mine tend to be more pessimistic while Geoff's tend to be
more optimistic. I tend to believe that people don't like to be told they
have 6 months to live, then die in 3; but rather they would prefer to be
told they have 3 months that might get extended by 3. At the same time there
are those that won't accept anything except an exact answer and will
criticize inaccuracies despite any disclaimers that 'past behavior is no
guarantee of future performance'. 

All I will say is that anything projected after the first RIR runs out is
highly suspect. Given that it is likely to be APnic, and their burn rate has
been more than 2x of the rest combined, that demand will go somewhere and my
crystal ball is not clear enough for me to figure out where.


> -----Original Message-----
> From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net] On
> Behalf Of Lee Howard
> Sent: Thursday, February 03, 2011 3:21 PM
> To: William Herrin; arin-ppml at arin.net
> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] Advisory Council Meeting Results - January
> 2011
> ----- Original Message ----
> > From: William Herrin <bill at herrin.us>
> > To: arin-ppml at arin.net
> > Sent: Thu, February 3, 2011 5:18:01 PM
> > Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] Advisory Council Meeting Results - January
> 2011
> >
> > On Thu, Feb 3, 2011 at 4:44 PM, ARIN <info at arin.net> wrote:
> > > The AC  abandoned ARIN-prop-128 [...]
> > > because there is insufficient time to  implement the proposal
> through the
> > > normal PDP.
> >
> > If Geoff's  projections are correct there will be two more meetings
> > before ARIN is down  to its last /8. Just sayin'.
> If Tony's projections are correct, San Juan is the last IPv4 meeting.
> But the point is moot, since prop-128 had to do with a policy set to
> change at the time of the last IANA allocation, not the last ARIN
> allocation.  Since the last IANA allocation of IPv4 addresses has now
> happened, the proposal has been Overtaken By Events.
> Lee
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