[arin-ppml] New Entrants shut out? (Was: ARIN-2011-5: ... - Last Call

[Jeffrey Lyon]

On Sat, Apr 30, 2011 at 10:01 AM, Owen DeLong <owen at delong.com> wrote:
>>
>> Owen,
>>
>> You have to be willing to agree that free markets are more efficient
>> than planned economies to find my argument compelling. In a free
>> market, IPv4 will always be available to those in need. In a planned
>> economy (need-based justification) it will run out, die completely,
>> and force migration to IPv6. There are many finite resources in the
>> world that continue to trade in the free market (eg. oil, gold, etc)
>> and therefore are readily available for purchase despite their finite
>> nature. Speculators are a temporary nuisance, they can gamble as they
>> wish but the market will still set the price in the long term.
>>
> I think that there are strengths and weaknesses to both approaches.
>
> In the case of both oil and gold, while they are finite, it is not the market
> that has kept them rotating among consumers, but, rather the increasing
> prices in a market that has lead to additional efforts to extract them from
> the earth (sometimes with dire environmental consequences).
>
> Oil and gold are nowhere near the limits that IPv4 is facing. There is
> still more oil in known locations underground than we can possibly
> consume in decades, even at current rates of acceleration of consumption.
>
> However, once all of the oil had been extracted, refined, and consumed,
> a market will not make more oil available. It will not repair the damage
> to the environment from ever increasingly aggressive efforts to extract
> it, etc.
>
> Indeed, I do find your markets are the best argument especially un-
> compelling as it relates to gold and oil. Not because I believe that
> markets are inherently bad, but, because your claims about the
> properties of markets are fallacious at best.
>
> Markets do tend to work reasonably well with appropriate regulation
> when they are used as a mechanism for the distribution of commodities
> where the supply is flexible and demand can drive additional supply.
>
> So far, that is true of gold and oil.
>
>> This leads me to one of two conclusions:
>>
>> - You support planned economies and do not believe in free markets
>> -or-
>> - You intend to see IPv4 die and see the damage it's causing as a
>> necessary evil.
>>
> Actually, this is also a fallacious characterization of the reality.
>
> While I'm not entirely opposed to a market, I believe that justified need
> is a perfectly valid regulation of the market as I do not believe that
> speculators bring any value to the economy.
>
>> My "plan" allows for companies to make their own decision to migrate
>> to IPv6, without anyone at ARIN having to force it upon them.
>>
> I'm all for doing that. However, your plan also enables speculators to
> come in, purchase all IPv4 addresses available at anything approaching
> reasonable pricing and by cornering the market manipulate the pricing
> of IPv4 addresses for no purpose other than their own greed.
>
> Please explain how that benefits the community.
>
> Owen
>
>

Owen,

I'm more of a laissez faire economist, so there are points that we
will not be able to agree upon. Speculation will have an effect on the
market, but I would argue that it would be nominal and temporary.
There is a breaking point where companies will give up on IPv4 and
adopt IPv6, speculators can't back buyers into a corner in this
respect. Additionally, if speculators drive up prices this will
encourage more supply to enter the market (resource holders seeing an
opportunity to take profit) which will drive the price back down
(hence my argument that the effect of speculation is temporary).

Granting the assumption that not everyone on PPML subscribes to
laissez faire principles, some items for the community to consider:

- Should ARIN reserve a pool for non-commercial entities (non-profits,
education, etc)
- Should some controls be put in place to discourage speculation

-- 
Jeffrey Lyon, Leadership Team
jeffrey.lyon at blacklotus.net | http://www.blacklotus.net
Black Lotus Communications - AS32421
First and Leading in DDoS Protection Solutions