[arin-ppml] REQUEST FOR ARIN STAFF Was: Re: Policy Proposal 120: Protecting Number Resources

[Hannigan, Martin]

On 11/9/10 4:08 PM, "Owen DeLong" <owen at delong.com> wrote:

> 
>> Looking at the rest of this list:
>> 
>>> 2004:  29.00 /16s
>>> 2005:  14.61 /16s
>>> 2006:  14.01 /16s
>>> 2007:  30.50 /16s
>>> 2008:   8.45 /16s
>>> 2009:   8.37 /16s
>>> 2010*:  5.84 /16s
>> 
>> Doesn't really say much other than 2008 seemed to decline and there's no
>> explanation why, at least one that is obvious.
>> 
>> 
> Actually, what it says to me is that there was an anomalous spike in 2007
> and otherwise it has generally declined since the beginning.
> 
> Since 2004 is the first year of the statistics presented, it is hard to tell
> if that
> was a spike or the starting point of the decline.
> 
> Looking at it linearly....(all values rounded up to whole numbers):
> 
> 31  |   |   |   | * |   |   |   |
> 30  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 29  | * |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 28  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 27  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 26  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 25  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 24  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 23  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 22  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 21  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 20  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 19  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 18  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 17  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 16  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 15  |   | * | * |   |   |   |   |
> 14  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 13  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 12  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 11  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
> 10  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
>  9  |   |   |   |   | * | * |   |
>  8  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
>  7  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
>  6  |   |   |   |   |   |   | * |
> =================================
>      '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
> 
> To me this looks like the negative side of a parabola on a biennial
> step with an anomaly at 2007. (In other words, returns diminishing
> rapidly at the beginning with a continuing near zero rate over time).
> 


Would you like some fries with that?

I apologize in advance for addressing this hyperbole, but this "could"
indicate a real problem vs. no problem at all. It could mean that ARIN has
done nothing with respect to recovery; not enough work has been done to
flush it out one way or the other.

Best,

-M<