[arin-ppml] REQUEST FOR ARIN STAFF Was: Re: Policy Proposal 120: Protecting Number Resources

[Owen DeLong]

> Looking at the rest of this list:
> 
>> 2004:  29.00 /16s
>> 2005:  14.61 /16s
>> 2006:  14.01 /16s
>> 2007:  30.50 /16s
>> 2008:   8.45 /16s
>> 2009:   8.37 /16s
>> 2010*:  5.84 /16s
> 
> Doesn't really say much other than 2008 seemed to decline and there's no
> explanation why, at least one that is obvious.
> 
> 
Actually, what it says to me is that there was an anomalous spike in 2007
and otherwise it has generally declined since the beginning.

Since 2004 is the first year of the statistics presented, it is hard to tell if that
was a spike or the starting point of the decline.

Looking at it linearly....(all values rounded up to whole numbers):

31  |   |   |   | * |   |   |   |
30  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
29  | * |   |   |   |   |   |   |
28  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
27  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
26  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
25  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
24  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
23  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
22  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
21  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
20  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
19  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
18  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
17  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
16  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
15  |   | * | * |   |   |   |   |
14  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
13  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
12  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
11  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
10  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 9  |   |   |   |   | * | * |   |
 8  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 7  |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 6  |   |   |   |   |   |   | * |
=================================
     '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

To me this looks like the negative side of a parabola on a biennial
step with an anomaly at 2007. (In other words, returns diminishing
rapidly at the beginning with a continuing near zero rate over time).


Owen

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