owen at delong.com
Mon Nov 8 22:01:57 EST 2010
None of this is official, but, it is baed on my observations of the various
projections and the industry trends.
The closest thing I've seen to a clock is:
This sort of has hands and is a liberal artistic license inspired by
the corpus clock (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCqGtvTA36k).
On Nov 8, 2010, at 6:26 PM, Ronald F. Guilmette wrote:
> In message <206001cb7f91$64b8f6e0$2e2ae4a0$@com>,
> "Warren Johnson" <warren at wholesaleinternet.com> wrote:
>> I simply think it is intriguing that a large evangelist and proponent of
>> ipv6 adoption required a gigantic allocation. It demonstrates the
>> complexity of the issue.
> Just curious... Who is the official keeper of the IPv4 doomsday clock,
> and how much closer to midnite does this allocation put us?
> (I see a couple of things out there that look sort-of like IPv4 doomsday
> counter-downers, but nothing that's really clock-looking. I'd like to
> see a real clock someplace, with hands. I guess that if one takes the
> whole of the IPv4 space as being 12 hours, then I guess that we are
> already well past 11 PM, yes?)
Way way way past... Depending on which definition of doomsday
you want to use...
Definition 1: The day IANA issues the last 5 /8s to the RIRs
By that definition, it is approximately 11:58
Definition 2: The day the first RIR approves but cannot satisfy
a request for IPv4 addresses due to lack of available addresses
in RIR inventory with no ability to gain more from IANA.
By that definition, it is approximately 11:54
Definition 3: The day the first RIR can no longer provide even
a minimum allocation (APNIC = /24, ARIN = /24, AfriNIC = /24,
RIPE = /32, LACNIC I'm not sure).
By that definition, it is approximately 11:45
Definition 4: The day the first RIR can't satisfy a median-sized (for that RIR)
By this definition, it is approximately 11:50
Definition 5: The day NO RIR can satisfy a median-sized (for that RIR)
By this definition, it is approximately 11:35
Definition 6: The day NO RIR can satisfy any request for IPv4 space.
By this definition, it is approximately 11:20
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