[arin-ppml] Set aside round deux

[Hannigan, Martin]

On 7/30/10 6:21 PM, "Keith W. Hare" <Keith at jcc.com> wrote:

>> This is likely to change, however, when there
>> are no more IPv4 addresses to allocate and current
>> netblock owners begin milking their holdings for profit.
> 
> When there are no more IPv4 addresses to allocate, I expect a Y2K-type
> reactionary hype with:
> 
> -- The world as we know it is going to end!
> -- We have to fix this problem now!
> -- Why didn't anyone warn us about this before?!?
> 
> There might even be congressional hearings where all sorts of experts testify
> about the crisis.
> 
> I expect that when ISPs start issuing only IPv6 addresses to customers, the
> companies with web sites that sell things will make sure their web sites
> support IPv6.
> 
> I really don't expect much of a market for IPv4 addresses -- I think it will
> be cheaper and simpler to implement IPv6 than to purchase or lease IPv4
> addresses.
> 
> I'm sure that there will be a small number of companies that fail because they
> didn't anticipate and plan.
> 
> In another year or two, I expect IPv6 to hit like a tsunami. Worrying about
> how many beach umbrellas there are or where they are placed isn't going to
> make any difference.
> 


You might be right. Then again, I'd rather see ARIN be wrong in asserting
that there is going to be a significant economic problem related to the
inability of some to continue to grow with IPv4 is dual stack is going to be
the transition mechanism du jour than wrong in doing nothing.

The only reason that there would be any involvement by government is if they
are lobbied to do so. If we blow transition, the government is going to
become involved at some level. Hopefully it will be as observers more than
participants.


Best,

-M<