[arin-ppml] ARIN IPv4 Number Resource Inventory (was: PP 124 Preliminary Info)

[John Curran]

On Dec 30, 2010, at 7:50 PM, Bill Sandiford wrote:

> John:
> 
> Do we know what ARIN's current IPv4 issue rate is?

Bill - 

  You'll get very different answers depending on the time 
  period you pick to rate average. The IPv4 issue rate over 
  the last few years for ARIN has been on or under 2 /8's
  per year (data through '09 is here: 64K /24's = /8,
  <https://www.arin.net/knowledge/stats.pdf>)   If you 
  want to consider the rate over CY 2010, it's been lower 
  but increasingly rapidly towards the end of the year  
  <https://www.arin.net/knowledge/statistics/index.html>
  Note that there are quite a few factors that make the
  "current rate" a horrible predictor: it does not take 
  seasonality of requests into account, nor does it show
  the human factors impact of various policies passing
  (until well after the fact when they show up in the 
  actual allocations made.)

  FYI - For those who really want some raw data, it is all
  available via the ARIN-issued mailing list (also listed 
  on that web page.) Feel free to run the actual daily 
  allocations into whatever model you feel most appropriate...

  If you'd like an estimate based on my own judgement of 
  the most recent activity, the current "instantaneous"
  issue rate is probably closer to one /8 every two to 
  three months (which implies about 9 months from IANA 
  depletion to ARIN depletion.)  I hesitate to state even
  that much publicly, since a handful of requests can
  dramatically impact that outlook in *either* direction.  
  Going into 2012, any parties that want to continue grow 
  their Internet business should be serious looking into 
  IPv6 and (if needed) the limited options that will exist 
  for IPv4 address transfer.  This is not drill: we are 
  going to fully deplete the available IPv4 address pool 
  in the very near future.

Best wishes,
/John

John Curran
President and CEO
ARIN