[arin-ppml] ARIN IPv4 Number Resource Inventory (was: PP 124 Preliminary Info)
jcurran at arin.net
Thu Dec 30 20:43:33 EST 2010
On Dec 30, 2010, at 7:50 PM, Bill Sandiford wrote:
> Do we know what ARIN's current IPv4 issue rate is?
You'll get very different answers depending on the time
period you pick to rate average. The IPv4 issue rate over
the last few years for ARIN has been on or under 2 /8's
per year (data through '09 is here: 64K /24's = /8,
<https://www.arin.net/knowledge/stats.pdf>) If you
want to consider the rate over CY 2010, it's been lower
but increasingly rapidly towards the end of the year
Note that there are quite a few factors that make the
"current rate" a horrible predictor: it does not take
seasonality of requests into account, nor does it show
the human factors impact of various policies passing
(until well after the fact when they show up in the
actual allocations made.)
FYI - For those who really want some raw data, it is all
available via the ARIN-issued mailing list (also listed
on that web page.) Feel free to run the actual daily
allocations into whatever model you feel most appropriate...
If you'd like an estimate based on my own judgement of
the most recent activity, the current "instantaneous"
issue rate is probably closer to one /8 every two to
three months (which implies about 9 months from IANA
depletion to ARIN depletion.) I hesitate to state even
that much publicly, since a handful of requests can
dramatically impact that outlook in *either* direction.
Going into 2012, any parties that want to continue grow
their Internet business should be serious looking into
IPv6 and (if needed) the limited options that will exist
for IPv4 address transfer. This is not drill: we are
going to fully deplete the available IPv4 address pool
in the very near future.
President and CEO
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