[arin-ppml] Will the price per IP really be affected bythetransfer market introduced in 2009-1?

[michael.dillon at bt.com]

> And that one exhibits a clear lack of knowledge as to what's 
> actually occurring outside of ARIN today. There is documented 
> proof of a 'transfer' market. There are not many people 
> denying it these days.

Occasional sales of a block of IP addresses do not constitute
a market. I remember this happening back in 1997 and I don't
see any evidence that the volume of transfers has gone up
since then. To call it a market, you need to have a certain
amount of openness/availability and you need reasonably 
frequent transactions or liquidity. 

> The PPML discussion (by some) demonstrates how broken that "transfer"
> process is and leasing is one of many methods to exploit that process.
> I take my /8, I carve it up into /16's to be a good 
> net.citizen, I allocate (lease) them myself passing LOA

Leasing is a gamble, because if you sell a block, you get your
money up front and if IPv6 deploys quickly, your buyer is the
loser. But if you lease the block, then you lose when IPv6 
jumps into the scene.

The smart money is going to avoid this whole wild west scene 
and beaver away on their IPv6 deployments, clean up their
IP address records, and prepare for the financial hit that 
may occur when they wade through the chaos of the early days
of widespread IPv6 deployment.

--Michael Dillon