[arin-ppml] Some data relating to IPv4 address exhaustion (or not)

[michael.dillon at bt.com]

> Here are some interesting data points for this group to consider.  
> According to the U.N., world economic growth dropped from 3.5-4% in
> 2003-2007 to 2.5% in 2008, and the prediction is for around 
> 1% growth in 2009.  At the same time, Geoff Huston's numbers 
> have been shifting to the right.  In the case of IANA the 
> number has shifted out 6 months in 6 months.  We have not 
> seen quite the same shift for RIR numbers, however.  Is world 
> economic growth a controlling variable in the equation of IP 
> address consumption, or merely a coincidence, and how can we tell?

Wait five years, look at the numbers, and you will know.

In the past recessions have caused an increase in spending
on various types of IT products, such as IP networks. So it
is entirely possible that the world economic slowdown will
slightly speed up the runout of IPv4 addresses. If there were
going to be a significant negative impact, I think that we 
would have seen some sign of it by now, which suggests to
me that the overall economic situation does not strongly
impact IP address consumption one way or another.

There is probably a combination of things going on which
include some people cutting back and disconnecting sites
from the network, and others adding more network connections
in order to increase the use of teleconferencing services
to save money on travel and avoid the downside risks of
the global flu epidemic this autumn.

Personally, I don't think it is productive for ARIN to 
engage in building economic models to use in forecasting
IP address consumption.

--Michael Dillon