[arin-ppml] Mighten it happen like this?

[Martin Hannigan]

....And policy will _follow_ most of these problems. Just like in the
real world.

Best,

Marty



On 5/3/09, Milton L Mueller <mueller at syr.edu> wrote:
> Nice. You're starting to think like an economist.
>
> <that's a compliment, don't go ballistic. Gobble, gobble>
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net] On
>> Behalf Of Ted Mittelstaedt
>> Sent: Thursday, April 30, 2009 6:06 PM
>> To: 'ARIN PPML'
>> Subject: [arin-ppml] Mighten it happen like this?
>>
>>
>> In thinking about this IPv4 runout it occurs to me that it might possible
>> go something like this.
>>
>> After the last /8 is assigned to ARIN, the hostmasters there will get out
>> their knives and start slicing off subnets from it.  A handful of Very
>> Large
>> requests will be satisfied from it, then a lot more smaller requests, then
>> the /8 will be as the turkey is on the platter during the last
>> Thanksgiving
>> -
>> the large breasts gutted but still plenty of edible meat in smaller
>> chunks.
>>
>> Then the reclamation efforts will start turning up even smaller and
>> smaller
>> chunks of IPv4 abandonded years earlier - nothing to satisfy the large
>> consumers,
>> but still plenty of smaller tasty bits.  And in the meantime they will
>> still
>> be stripping the carcass of the /8 for the last usable bits.
>>
>> Then the carcass will be done and reclamation will be in full swing now -
>> but
>> the IPv4 coming in from reclamation will be somewhat less tasty -
>> ex-spammers
>> blocks, stinky old swampland that may or may not have been used.
>>
>> Then reclamation will start petering off and the IPv4 bits coming in from
>> it
>> will be very nasty indeed - blocks with squatters in it that the obtainer
>> of the block will have to actively evict, blocks where the original
>> occupier
>> is still fighting with ARIN over ownership.
>>
>> Then they will get down to the nitty-gritty of trying to piece together
>> minimal
>> sized blocks to allocate from scattered /24's some of which are
>> abandonded,
>> some
>> not - begging and pleading with owners to please move over to this other
>> /24
>> so
>> we can use the one your on to aggregate together a larger block.
>>
>> Somewhere along the way some kind of transfer market may spring up - short
>> lived
>> though it may be, with a few folks making a killing off selling blocks -
>> but
>> as
>> time passes it will die down.
>>
>> During this time the number of orgs wanting IPv4 will be decreasing as
>> more
>> and more of the requestors give up hope of getting usable IPv4 and more
>> and
>> more
>> of them migrate to IPv6.
>>
>> So, perhaps maybe fully 4 years after the last /8 is allocated to ARIN
>> then
>> the
>> very last aggregated subnet of any size will be given out - reclamation
>> will
>> be
>> exhausted, and pretty much nobody will have any hope left of getting IPv4
>> allocations
>> except from the transfer market.  That might mark the "official" end of
>> ARIN-assigned
>> "free" IPv4.
>>
>> The transfer market will be peaking right around now - as prices get so
>> rediculous
>> that it becomes cost effective for even the most retrogade networks to go
>> to
>> IPv6.
>>
>> Then a tipping point will be reached and over a few months the bottom will
>> drop
>> out of the transfer market and the market will crash, and we will see the
>> commencement
>> of an accellerated schedule of more and more networks dropping IPv4.
>>
>> A few years after that then reports will begin to show up of routing
>> unreliability
>> of the IPv4 Internet in certain spots on the Internet.
>>
>> By 4 years after the "official end" of ARIN-assigned IPv4, we will start
>> to
>> see
>> websites set up with countdown clocks predicting the very last day that
>> IPv4
>> traffic
>> will exist on the Internet.
>>
>> Then, sometime in 2020, some politician will send an e-mail titled
>> "Goodbye"
>> at a
>> ribbon-cutting ceremony that will mark the last time that a real IPv4
>> packet
>> will
>> be sent over the public Internet from a public client to a public server.
>>
>> Around 2025, Cisco will make proficiency in IPv4 an optional part of it's
>> assesment test.
>>
>> Around 2030, Juniper and Cisco will release firmware that won't have IPv4
>> support in
>> the base load.
>>
>> Does seem like a realistic end-game?
>>
>> Ted
>>
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