[arin-ppml] market musings

[Joe Miller]

This may be an extreme oversimplification, but it seems that one way 
that could be considered taking an active, and effective role to 
mitigate the consequences of IPv4 runout would be to take an active role 
in promoting, educating, and preparing people for conversion to IPv6.  
ARIN is doing some things in this regard right now, but I have heard 
some hesitation from some ARIN AC and BoT members that they are unsure 
how much of a role ARIN should take other than providing information. 

The charter in 2050 accords the RIR with conservation of address space, 
and defines that as fair distribution of globally unique address space.  
If the address space includes v6, then they are most certainly meeting 
the conservation charter in 2050.  The problem is that IPv6 isn't really 
viable until any person on any ISP with only an IPv6 address has the 
exact same customer experience as a current consumer does on IPv4.  Once 
we get to that point, then IPv4 runout is irrelevant.

My point is that ARIN could interpret the conservation charter in 2050 
as a directive to spend resources actively getting people to IPv6.  
Increasing the resource is conservation, the same as preserving the 
existing resource.  Environmentalists deal with the tree problem and the 
whale problem by taking the dual pronged approach, and it has saved some 
species from extinction.  Cut down fewer trees, plant more trees.  Which 
is easier?  Which is more effective?

I did bring this up a couple of times during the PP meeting in the halls 
and at the lunchtime discussion to ARIN AC and BoT, and they asked 
"Well, how can we do that?".  I don't have an answer to that question, 
but I am sure the community could come up with some good, or even great 
ideas with a little discussion.

It is almost certain that if ARIN could pull off an effective transition 
to IPv6 over the next two years, they won't have to worry about the 
political ramifications of IPv4 runout.

It is also very clear that two years may not be enough time to get it done.

--joe

Tom Vest wrote:
> Go back and read RFC 2050 again.
> Managing the consequences of address scarcity is only one (of at least  
> three) key requirements that the RIRs were chartered to manage.
>
> TV
>
> On Apr 30, 2009, at 10:20 PM, Matthew Kaufman wrote:
>
>   
>> Kevin Kargel wrote:
>>     
>>> ...
>>> A safer and much more secure course of action would seem to be to  
>>> continue
>>> doing what one does well, especially when that is backe by a proven  
>>> record
>>> of success...
>>>
>>>       
>> ...which will be an entirely irrelevant track record after run-out  
>> occurs.
>>
>> Your whole message is a new packaging of "we should keep doing things
>> the same way we've always done them because that's worked well".  
>> Which I
>> am in 100% agreement with, up to the part where the entire world  
>> changes
>> and it becomes impossible for ARIN to do that *at all* for IPv4,  
>> because
>> there simply will not be IPv4 addresses for them to hand out under the
>> current policies and procedures.
>>
>> Of course ARIN also insists that lots of money must be charged for  
>> small
>> blocks of IPv6 address space, which the trade press reports is so
>> plentiful that it could never run out no matter how fast it gets used
>> up. Fortunately it will be a lot easier in IPv6 to find unused space  
>> to
>> start routing without payment, and since it'll be a long time before
>> there's any authentication associated with routing (and almost as long
>> before people actually figure out how to make their applications do
>> reverse DNS lookups on IPv6 addresses), perhaps the relevance of
>> registries for both IPv4 and IPv6 will be declining.
>>
>> Matthew Kaufman
>>
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