[arin-ppml] The AC has a job to do with 2009-1, can you please help?

[William Herrin]

On Mon, Apr 6, 2009 at 10:37 AM, John Curran <jcurran at istaff.org> wrote:
> On Apr 6, 2009, at 10:29 AM, William Herrin wrote:
>> The genius of proposal 2008-6 is that the author said, "Okay, give it
>> a chance. We'll make sure up front that if it turns out badly, the
>> policy won't stick around." That addition was enough to put it over
>> the top where the ones before had failed.
>>
>> Stripping the sunset strips the consensus that found 2008-6 acceptable.
>
> Do you see any potential that a sunset clause will encourage well-informed
> parties to act sooner in seeking address blocks via this policy, resulting
> in much fewer idle IPv4 blocks available at the point in time when the
> general industry experiences the need to obtain such?

John,

Yes, I see that potential. I considered it back when I chose to support 2008-6.

Practically speaking, I think the hoarding is already in full swing.
Look what the big players are doing in their wireless arms. A globally
routable IP address for every cell phone? It makes little difference
which blocks get hoarded.

Until the free pool is actually exhausted, there's very little to gain
by exercising 2008-6. The registrant arriving has to demonstrate the
same need that they'd demonstrate for the same size block from the
free pool. You could acquire blocks that are potentially more
desirable than the dregs of the free pool (e.g. small blocks in the
swamp) but that strikes me as an expensive and chancy play...
especially if a sunset clause warns that you might not be able to sell
them later.

As for well-informed parties, I expect that word will get around
pretty fast once IANA gives out its last /8. We'll see, "Web runs out
of addresses," on the front page of at least a couple major US
newspapers. Until then, well, like I said the hoarding will neither
speed up nor slow down as a result of 2008-6.

With respect to idle blocks, I doubt there are many. I expect there to
be a huge number of undertasked blocks: address space dedicated to
functions that could be re-engineered to consume fewer addresses if
there was enough profit to be made in doing so. Public IPs for cell
phones, for example. But I expect the genuinely idle blocks to vanish
quickly regardless.

Regards,
Bill Herrin



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