[ppml] NANOG IPv4 Exhaustion BoF

[Tom Vest]

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On Mar 6, 2008, at 9:20 AM, Leo Bicknell wrote:

> In a message written on Thu, Mar 06, 2008 at 09:11:08AM -0800,  
> Scott Leibrand wrote:
>> In the past I've used the analogy of Manhattan real estate: it's
>> definitely unique, and has only imperfect substitutes elsewhere,  
>> as IPv4
>> is unique, with its own unique demand, and IPv6 is an imperfect  
>> substitute.
>
> While we're tossing out all of our analogies, I think a better one
> is Super Bowl tickets.  Some people get in early at relatively low
> prices, as the big day gets closer the prise rises, scalpers appear,
> etc.  Once the kick off starts any tickets still in your hands are
> worthless.
>
> IPv4 is fixed like the number of seats.  Once most of the Internet
> is on IPv6 it will be worthless.  In the mean time the price, white,
> grey, or black market will continue to rise bounded only be the
> desire to "be there."
>
> That desire has little to do with policy; a popular team, network,
> or application could all drive demand.

Hi Leo,

That's somewhat  better, but still incomplete and more than a bit  
misleading IMHO. Consider:

First of all, a scalper can only use one ticket her/himself, and  
there's only one game to see, so there's no upside to her/him to  
holding the surplus tickets forever. Not so in this case.

Second, what if the timing of the kickoff and the status of the next  
season is uncertain, and the scalpers know that they might have some  
influence on what happens? Would they have any interest in getting  
the game started quickly, and guaranteeing the next season (when they  
may or may not have tickets to scalp), or would they prefer to hold  
out as long as possible to squeeze every possible penny out of every  
seat now? If people are really desperate, maybe they could multiplex  
the tickets, selling each to groups that are willing to sit on each  
others' laps...

Finally, what if the people without tickets knew that buying off the  
scalpers today could disrupt the scheduling and pricing model of  
future games? How much are tickets to this one game really worth?

TV

> -- 
>        Leo Bicknell - bicknell at ufp.org - CCIE 3440
>         PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/
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