[arin-ppml] Q2: on Address Transfers - Overkill on the freeze period?

[Leo Bicknell]

In a message written on Fri, Jun 20, 2008 at 10:25:31AM -0400, Milton L Mueller wrote:
>    The problem here is the huge disincentive it creates to release any
>    address space. Unless the address block involved and the money
>    exchanged is pretty darn large and the entity has zero chance of
>    asking for any more ipv4, who's going to put up with a 4-year time out
>    from mama ARIN? What's your goal here -- do you want to rub people's
>    noses in the need-based ideology or do you want to get them to give up
>    addresses?

Correction, a 2 year time out on IPv4 resources only.

I think the interesting thought exercise here is consider if this
restriction were that in place, that is:

  - ARIN has no more address space to give out.
  - You have excess resources at this moment.

Unless the address holder has fully transitioned to IPv6 they will
need more IPv4 resources in the future.  They can't be obtained
from ARIN, so selling resources now means future needs will have
to be bought on the open market.  Is the price going to go up or
down before you need them?

It's an interesting bet.  My own feeling is anyone who believes
they have a need the next two years would choose to hold on to their
address space, rather than selling it and buying back more later
at a unknown price.  Thus I come up with the premise that no address
holder who needs space in the next two years will sell it now and
then come back trying to buy more later; it doesn't pass any
reasonable risk/reward analysis.

However, there is a class of people who might like to hold address
space for shorter periods of time, speculators.  I'm not as concerned
about people who are in the market for the long haul (investors,
if you will), but rather with those who play off volility in the
market (day traders, if you will), as they tend to destabilize the
market.

Personally I might support a timeframe as short as 1 year, but no
shorter.  For the reasons above, I don't think 2 years is likely
to be a burden to anyone actually using the space.  I'd be interested
in hearing an argument as to why someone might want to sell excess
space and then buy on the open market in a year timeframe.

-- 
       Leo Bicknell - bicknell at ufp.org - CCIE 3440
        PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/
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