[ppml] Policy Proposal 2007-16: Ipv4 Soft Landing - a simulation analysis

[David Conrad]

Geoff,

Thanks very much!

On Jan 30, 2008, at 7:11 PM, Geoff Huston wrote:
> Taking the values for 0.85 and 0.90 and plugging them in to the
> projection model as per the policy proposal results in the following:
>
> IANA exhaustion date: 8 July 2011 (was 1 June 2011)
>
> First RIR to exhaust its unallocated address pool: 17 October 2012  
> (was
> 8 August 2012)

Based on your assumptions and analysis, it would seem the change in  
allocation criteria wouldn't have sufficient impact to make the effort  
worthwhile.

> Like all simulations there are a lot of assumptions at play here,

Indeed, and the back of the envelope results I obtained (oh so long  
ago) were somewhat different, but I trust your numbers more than mine  
(:-)).

So, the question is, whether I should

a) revise 2007-16 to remove the change in allocation criteria but keep  
the requirements for documentation of transition plans (etc.)
b) abandon 2007-16 as a bad idea
c) do more simulation studies to see how different the answers might  
be given different assumptions

What do people think?

Thanks,
-drc