[arin-ppml] How much time would we have?

[Howard, W. Lee]

QUESTION
At various levels of assignment efficiency (i.e., doing nothing,
reclaiming or 
marketizing addresses) and at various levels of demand (extrapolation of

current level, increase due to panic, decrease due to IPv6 uptake or
increased 
IPv4 efficiency), what is the effective runout date?  i.e., can we
figure 
various runout dates based on various assumptions?

For each set of assumptions, what is RIR runout date?
Demand assumptions:  What multiple of current rate (13.7 per year, plus
1.5
per year)
Supply assumptions:  What percentage of legacy space could be recovered
and
reallocated (whether by reclamation or by market incentives)?
			
			Demand Assumption (what multiple of current
rate)
			1/3		Current		3X
%Legacy Realloc
0% 			2011		2011		2011
30% 			2011		2012		2011
50% 			2014		2013		2012
70% 			2015		2014		2012
90% 			2017		2015		2013

(formatting note: I used tabs for whitespace)

In English:  for each level of demand (1/3 of current rate, current
rate, or 3X current rate) and each level of legacy space reassigned,
when do we run out of space?


SUMMARY
Changing IPv4 policies (harder or easier to get more) doesn't have much 
effect on the runout date by itself.
Becoming more efficient in legacy space buys a year or two (or more,  
depending on how inefficient you think legacy assignments are).  
If you want to delay the time-to-runout by two or more years, you need 
extreme measures: significantly reduce the amount of IPv4 address space 
assigned by RIRs, and reassign at least half of legacy address space.


CONCLUSIONS
You have until 2011 to get onto IPv6, or otherwise make it so you never
need 
more IPv4.  Aggressive outreach to encourage organizations to transition
to 
IPv6 and/or make broad use of address translation.  Barriers to IPv6
need to
be eliminated.


DATA USED FOR ASSUMPTIONS
http://www.nro.net/documents/presentations/jointstats.v1.0608.pdf
http://www.iana.org/assignments/ipv4-address-space/
There are 35 /8 unavailable, 91 legacy, 39 to be assigned.
Global demand is increasing since 2002, by very roughly 1.5 /8 per year.

It doesn't matter whether you measure IANA assigning the last /8 (or the
last 5 /8s) or RIR runout date.   By 2011, RIRs will be
assigning/allocating 1.5 /8 per month, so the last ARIN assignment will
be only 3-6 months following IANA runout.



CAVEATS
I'm a liberal arts guy, not a math guy.
This is all my own work, for my own use.  I didn't check with anybody
while
doing it.
I ignored data from 2008 (although run rate is about right).
I assumed that improved efficiency in legacy space would be the same for

Classes A, B, and C, though I believe this assumption to be flawed.  Of
only 
18 Class As are privately held, I believe 4 Class A holders could be 
convinced to renumber, given enough money.  Assuming a significant
number of 
Class B and C holders (let's say 30/44 Class B holders and 6/7 Class C 
holders) can renumber, that's still only 40 out of 91 legacy /8s
reclaimed.  
Assuming they have only 25% efficiency, they use 10 /8s to renumber
into, 
giving us a net of 30 /8s
Not all RIRs assign address space at the same rate.  If you want to
reduce 
the burn rate on IPv4, APNIC and RIPE NCC are the areas of highest 
consumption, followed by ARIN.
I've attached the spreadsheet I used, so you can check my work.  I'll be
surprised if it survives scrutiny.
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