[arin-ppml] IANA IPv4 /8 burn rate.... (was Re: Stepping forward, opening my mouth and removing all doubt about)

[Scott Leibrand]

Alain,

You're missing the point.  If IPv4 addresses are free (as they are now), 
of course everyone will use a lot of them.  When they become scarce and 
expensive, people will start conserving IPv4.  Some will be able to 
conserve more than others, and a liberalized transfer policy will 
encourage them to free those addresses up and transfer them to someone who 
needs them more.  (And yes, at least in the commercial world, "need" 
roughly equates to "willingness to pay" for them.)

In basic microeconomics, quantity supplied equals quantity demanded at the 
price and quantity where the supply and demand curves intersect. 
Expecting that quantity to be the same in a market under conditions of 
scarcity (where the price is non-zero) as in a non-market distribution 
system based on abundance (where the price is zero) makes no sense unless 
the demand is completely inelastic (which it's clearly not).

-Scott

Alain Durand wrote:
> On 8/27/08 12:21 PM, "Stephen Sprunk" <stephen at sprunk.org> wrote:
> 
>>> Then there is also those who say, me included, that a liberalized transfer
>>> policy will not solve the problem at all. Recent ARIN stats showed that most
>>> addresses have been allocated in large or very large blocks. This is a
>>> direct consequence of the market concentration. Other recent data showed
>>> that what would be potentially available via a liberalized transfer policy
>>> would mostly be legacy Bs & Cs. Those blocks are simply too small to meet
>>> the global demand.
>>>  
>> OTOH, there are several large companies that have legacy As, which
>> currently have no incentive to return them to ARIN.  Many could renumber
>> into a /16 or less, using NAT, if only they had the financial motivation
>> to incur that cost; ditto for the hundreds of companies sitting on
>> multiple Bs that could renumber into a /24 if motivated.  However, that
>> still only buys us another year or two at current growth rates...
> 
> In 2007, IANA has delegated 13 /8 to the 5 combined RIR. This burn rate has
> been increasing year over year.
> 
> Now, can someone tell me with a straight face that there will be the
> equivalent of at least 13 /8 every year made available from "liberalized
> transfer"?
> 
>   - Alain.
> 
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