[ppml] Policy Proposal: IPv4 Soft Landing

[Geoff Huston]

>
>The IPv4 runout charts are a fiction that make the silly assumption
>that future behavior depends on past performance.  This isn't to say
>I think that fiction doesn't have value or that the Geoff is wrong in
>his assumptions (I'd make the same), but even he would, I suspect,
>agree that the estimates he provides are at best a best case scenario
>that ignores the socio-economic factors that will likely play an
>increasingly significant role in address allocations in the
>relatively near future.


yep - pretty much agreed.


The estimates I provide are based on a ;scenario that ignores the 
socio-economic factors that will likely play an increasingly 
significant role in address allocations in the relatively near future.

Behaviours commonly seen in conjunction with looming exhaustion of a 
finite resource, such as hoarding and a rush on remaining resources 
are not included in this model.

(last slide of http://www.potaroo.net/presentations/2007-05-09-ripe54-ipv4.pdf)

regards,

      Geoff