[ppml] Policy Proposal 2007-15: Authentication ofLegacyResources

[Paul Vixie]

> From: Steve Bertrand <steveb at eagle.ca>
...
> We (small independent ISP) have a /21 (from ARIN), and I have only begun
> to dabble with v6. I wish I had the time and resources to getting up to
> speed on how IPv6 works as well as I know how v4 hangs together.
> 
> There is nothing more I'd like to get all of my core infrastructure
> internally and up to our upstreams IPv6 enabled, and even provide our
> end-users the option to connect to us via v6 as well. However, time and
> personnel are a huge hurdle for us. Almost all of my core infrastructure
> equipment is already capable of v6.
> ...

steve, i am sensitive to the need to keep the lights on and the paychecks
coming.  however, it's important to keep in mind for planning purposes that
the long term outlook for IPv4 is quite grim.  within a couple of years,
IANA will have no more space to give ARIN and the other RIRs, and shortly
after that moment, ARIN and the other RIRs will have no more space to give
ISPs and LIRs.  the common name for this is "IPv4 pool depletion" and there
is no controversy or disagreement as to the inevitability of that depletion.

depletion could herald some kind of market-driven era, according to RFC 1744
and recent comments here and elsewhere by randy bush and others.  but with or
without a market, depletion will usher in a steady state IPv4 economy where
no new resources are available.  perhaps you won't need to grow the number
of connected devices in your network in order to grow revenue, but i think
you probably will need to grow, and i also think that everybody that your
customers will want to connect to will need to grow, and that no matter what
the steady state IPv4 world looks like, it will not be able to grow the number
of connected devices.

the only way i know of to grow the number of connected internet devices after
IPv4 pool depletion, is IPv6.  maybe a lot more folks will turn to IPv4 NAT,
but that won't answer the need for growth.  maybe the global IPv4 routing
table won't explode (somehow) but i don't see a way to prevent that in a
steady state universe, since entropy always increases.  maybe a market will
stabilize everything including routing table entropy, but i don't see it.

so, by all means, please keep your lights on and your paychecks coming.  but
don't forget that your business will absolutely suffer during and after the
depletion of the IPv4 pool, unless you find a way to do parallel development
on IPv6 technology.  that's where all growth will occur after a few short
years.  don't cut yourself out of it, or you may find yourself on the wayside.

paul vixie