[ppml] Combining Forecasts

[Martin Hannigan]

----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael K. Smith - Adhost" <mksmith at adhost.com>
To: "David Conrad" <drc at virtualized.org>
Cc: Public Policy Mailing List <ppml at arin.net>
Subject: Re: [ppml] Combining Forecasts
Date: Thu, 30 Aug 2007 10:45:30 -0700

> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: David Conrad [mailto:drc at virtualized.org]
> > Sent: Thursday, August 30, 2007 9:32 AM
> > To: Michael K. Smith - Adhost
> > Cc: Public Policy Mailing List
> > Subject: Re: [ppml] Combining Forecasts
> > 
> > > If we are going to use the forecasts to incent people
> > > to move from IPv4
> > > to IPv6 then we should be as accurate as possible.
> > 
> > It is a bit challenging to model human behavior.
> > 
> > How do you model a "run on the bank"?
> > 
> > How do you model a transition of public space to NAT'd
> > space as an effort towards conservation?
> > 
> > Projections such as Geoff's and Tony's are useful, but I
> > do not believe they are something you should bet your
> > house on. 
> > Regards,
> > -drc
> 
> I think it's a matter of helping the community make
> informed decisions based upon accurate forecasts. 

I'm more concerned that policy changes will be implemented
that shut out small to medium size networks long before
exhaustion. 

-M<