[ppml] Combining Forecasts

[Michael K. Smith - Adhost]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: David Conrad [mailto:drc at virtualized.org]
> Sent: Thursday, August 30, 2007 9:32 AM
> To: Michael K. Smith - Adhost
> Cc: Public Policy Mailing List
> Subject: Re: [ppml] Combining Forecasts
> 
> > If we are going to use the forecasts to incent people to move from
> > IPv4
> > to IPv6 then we should be as accurate as possible.
> 
> It is a bit challenging to model human behavior.
> 
> How do you model a "run on the bank"?
> 
> How do you model a transition of public space to NAT'd space as an
> effort towards conservation?
> 
> Projections such as Geoff's and Tony's are useful, but I do not
> believe they are something you should bet your house on.
> 
> Regards,
> -drc

I think it's a matter of helping the community make informed decisions
based upon accurate forecasts.  Although we all have our specific
desires about motivating people to move from IPv4 to IPv6 (or not, for
some), ARIN is in a position to provide the data necessary to make those
forecasts.  I wouldn't bet the house on predictions and forecasts, but I
would certainly use them to support my position on migration within my
organization.  It's one more tool in the tool belt, as it were.

Regards,

Mike