[ppml] Policy Proposal: Decreasing Exponential Rationing of IPv4 IP Addresses

[Ted Mittelstaedt]

>-----Original Message-----
>From: Dean Anderson [mailto:dean at av8.com]
>Sent: Tuesday, August 21, 2007 8:47 PM
>To: Ted Mittelstaedt
>Cc: Scott Leibrand; ppml at arin.net
>Subject: RE: [ppml] Policy Proposal: Decreasing Exponential Rationing of
>IPv4 IP Addresses
>
>
>> The extra waiting just uses up ARIN time and resources.
>
>I don't see how waiting takes up ARIN resources unproductively. The
>_waiting_ doesn't use any ARIN time or resources;  ARIN staff don't have
>to sit on hold with you.
>

It sure will because people who don't want to wait are going to try
bugging ARIN periodically to find out their place "in line" and to
pour out their host of sob stories on how they need to be expedited.

>> >hard limit in any case.  Once the ARIN staff realize they have a hard
>> >limit, they'll naturally look harder at documentation.  This doesn't
>> >have to be specified.
>> >
>>
>> ARIN already looks hard at documentation, it's kind of insulting to
>> imply that they don't.
>
>Some people think that ARIN staff doesn't have enough time to look as
>hard as they'd like.
>

ARIN has what - a surplus of 10 million bucks in the bank right now?  And
they
can't hire more people?  Review of applications can be done in parallel it
is not a serial process with everything funneling through 1 person.  Adding
more people makes it go faster.

>
>How do you want your Oil supply handled?  Do you want to just run out
>one day? Surprise! All the gas stations are closed. For good.  As you
>see the last guy locking up shop, you say "What the hell!!".
>
>And he says: "Well, 6 months ago we asked and no one wanted rationing.
>They just wanted to get this over and done with."  With that, he hops on
>his camel and rides away.
>

Actually if I could, YES.  But it's just wishful thinking.

The oil industry has -repeatedly- published the expected production
life of the various oil fields.  It is, of course, guesstimating when
a new oil field is opened because they don't know how far up production
can ramp.  But once the field production stops growing they can do a very
good job of forcasting the remaining life.

In any case, diesel oil can be made from sawgrass so we have an infinite
supply of it.  And turbo diesels are pretty popular in Europe and they
will be over here eventually.

>And so you go home and freeze to death in your oil-heated home, in the
>dark, with no (oil-produced) electricity, and no cable TV, and no
>Internet. Of course, the American Indians finally get back the Black
>Hills of South Dakota...Its all good.
>

Well, my home is natural gas, I could always go back to burning coal I
suppose if that ran out - or wear a coat.

Funny how people managed to live in homes for thousands of years without
oil heat...

And as for the squawk box - good!  It might raise the average intelligence
of
the country population a good 20 points if that happened.

>
>> Let's get this thing over and done with and go on to the next thing.
>
>Ah. Well, running out of IPv4 won't get it 'over and done with'.
>

Yes it will.  It will make it plain to everyone that if they have IPv4
existing they better think about switching over.  Soon!


>IPv6 isn't waiting for anything from
>IPv4. IPv4 runout has very little relevance to IPv6.  Running out of
>IPv4 won't make it any easier to go to IPv6.
>
>Hitting a hard limit on IPv4 is expected to cause a set of crises that
>are easily and prudently avoided by rationing.
>

What crises?

>Rationing IPv4 also ramps up the incentive to move to IPv6 smoothly.
>

I don't see how.  People that aren't migrating will not migrate until they
can't get any more IPv4.  It makes no difference if there's any in the bank
or
not.

Ted