[ppml] Policy Proposal: Expand timeframe of Additional Requests

[Ted Mittelstaedt]

>-----Original Message-----
>From: ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:ppml-bounces at arin.net]On Behalf Of
>Paul Vixie
>Sent: Thursday, August 16, 2007 12:35 PM
>To: Public Policy Mailing List
>Subject: Re: [ppml] Policy Proposal: Expand timeframe of Additional
>Requests
>
>
>> ... IP numbers have no value to a hoarder unless they can sell
>them.  So the
>> hoarder is going to obtain as much as he can then as soon as IPv4 runout
>> happens he's going to try to sell as much as he can as soon as he can -
>> since the value of IPv4 will be highest right after runout.
>
>i wish that i agreed.  even leaving aside the fact that IP addresses aren't
>property and that any market in them is a black market until and unless the
>community generally agrees to loosen the ties that bind us to RFC 2050, i'm
>struck by my utter disbelief that hoarders will dump.  when you've got a
>pile of stuff that costs you nothing to hold onto (no upkeep, so this isn't
>like pork bellies), you will trickle it out into the market at a
>pace designed
>to keep prices high.  if we postulate N hoarders and demand Q per
>interval T,
>each hoarder will have the quota of (N/Q)/T, knowing that if they
>exceed this
>they will not maximize their profit.  see the RAM chip market for examples,
>except that in RAM chips the value of your hoard goes down with
>innovation --
>having a lot of 256K chips is a burden when 512K chips come out, etc.  IPv4
>addresses, if the hoarders played their cards right, could increase in cost
>over time, since IPv6 is such a dark horse.
>

But the hoarders are competing with each other and there is no OPEC here.

The first hoarder to sell IP's will no doubt try what your saying -
the next one will undercut, the thrid one will undercut more, and so on.

Keep in mind what the hoarders are doing is borderline criminal - they
lied on the RSA to get the stock, if ARIN catches up with them ARIN
could revoke the entire assignment.  If one of the ISPs they are pitching
V4 to decides that they are trying to jack the price up too high - the ISP
reports to
ARIN and bam - addresses revoked.  If some network adminstrator like you
or I stumbles across something weird that leads us to believe there is
some IPv4 selling going on in violation of the RSA we report it to ARIN
and bam - ARIN investigates and the whole block is revoked.  ARIN puts up
a $5,000 reward for information regarding falsification of RSA and a
disgruntled network admin fired from some ISP decides to get revenge and
 - bam ARIN investigates and the block is revoked.  And all the
while the rest of the legitimate world will be doing whatever possible to
switchover to IPv6 and so as time passes the hoard will be worth less and
less.

Here's an idea for you - let's make a policy that any network or ISP that
needs IPv4 addresses, if they report what they think is a hoarder that
on investigation ARIN determines lied on their RSA,
ARIN will immediately revoke the ENTIRE block allocated to the hoarder
and give it to the network or ISP.  That would probably kill the hoarders.

Criminals have a notorious history of NOT cooperating with each other -
at least, the ones outside of the government do - and they also have
a notorious record of selling each other out for money.

if a "killer app" appears that is IPv6 only - then almost ALL IPv4 on the
Internet will immediately become worthless.

And as IPv4 gets turned in - the hoarders will find themselves competing
with the RIR's again to sell IPv4.

My off-the-cuff estimate is that any hoarder is going to have a max of
3 years post-IPv4 runout to sell or "rent" their IPv4 stock before the
price starts dropping due to oversupply.

Another analogy is Freon, AKA Refrigerant 12.  When the EPA banned
the little R12 "chargette" cans they announced it a year in advance and
a bunch of people ran out buying cases of the stuff - figuring they
would make a killing 4-5 years later selling Freon.  What happened is
that within 3 years the price of Freon on the market crashed, and today
there's tons of it out there, even though it hasn't been manufactured for
years.  Automakers and others switched over to R134a, and the gas refiners
produced tons of it from recycled refrigerant they bought from the
auto repair places.

>
>also, on this point, the community seems thus far quite divided.  folks who
>expect to keep needing more new IPv4 addresses after central pool depletion
>seem to favour the idea of making it "legal to buy them" (and therefore,
>"legal to sell them").  folks who expect to be able to renumber or
>to use NAT
>or to become more efficient seem to favour the idea of making it "legal to
>sell".  on the other hand, folks who know that the highest and best use of
>property is to buy low and sell high, speculate, and subdivide,
>are concerned
>about the digital divide (can afford addresses vs. not), globalization (a
>village ISP in africa might be able to make the equivilent of a
>year's profit
>by selling their IP address block in new york), routing table growth due to
>subdivision, and probably other things i'm not thinking of at the moment.
>

If IPv4 "sales" are allowed widely it will drive a stake in the heart of
IPv6 deployment and billions of dollars that the large networks have already
invested in getting ready for IPv6 will have been wasted.  I think the
problem
is the community hasn't throught it through.  People are entranced with the
idea that a legacy holder that paid nothing to get a /8 and nothing to
maintain
it might possibly be able to sell it for millions.  It's the classic
American
get-rich-quick story that is nothing more than a mirage.  Hopefully people
will
come to their senses and put a damper on this.

Ted