owen at delong.com
Wed May 11 02:39:04 EDT 2005
> I think that argument is a little misleading. Extrapolating
> (32 bits / 30 years) = (64 bits / 60 years) assumes that past
> performance is a predictor of future allocation .
It's also mathematically incorrect. (32 bits/30 years) generally
should approximate (33 bits/60 years). Even allowing for growth
rate, I don't see us using 2^32 times as much space in twice the
time (which is the ratio between 32 bits and 64 bits). (this
expands on Lee's  below).
> The magic of a /64 is that it's a single routable entity. If I
> assume that layer 3 networks connect layer 2 networks, I still
> haven't seen any argument here about what a layer 2 network of
> 2^64 devices would look like. It's not only inconceivable, it's
> inconceivable to (2^32) power or more, and then we say that we
> have to assign this enormous set of numbers in groups of 2^16.
>  OK, technically it assumes an exponential progression, but a
> predictable exponent. And I don't think most people see that.
Yeah... That one. :-)
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