[arin-discuss] [arin-announce] Community Consultation: Future Direction for the ARIN Fee Schedule

[Rich Ferchen]

I have to echo the sentiment that we should not assume that the mere fact that there are an enormous number of IP addresses in IPv6 means that we "should be fine". Even if it's true that IP itself will become obsolete before we predict IPv6 address shortages, the goal of ARIN should still be to responsibly allocate the addresses, as if they are a limited commodity.


The technology to obsolete IP may come, but it's hard to predict whether that will happen faster or slower than the technology that requires an exponential growth in addresses needed. And then... IPv8?


Rich Ferchen
Director, Engineering and Operations
DCT Telecom Group, Inc.

------ Original message------

From: Peter//MetanetHosting.com

Date: Sat, Oct 18, 2014 4:59 PM

To: Morizot Timothy S;arin-discuss at arin.net;

Subject:Re: [arin-discuss] [arin-announce] Community Consultation: Future Direction for the ARIN Fee Schedule

i am hoping IP is obsolete by the time we have to worry about these things
this is a great discussion with opportunity to learn many perspectives
thank you all



On 10/18/2014 4:27 PM, Peter//MetanetHosting.com wrote:
This thinking is naive.   It is very possible that even 10000 /48s will not be enough for every indivdual (or robot) alive.  A big issue is how the space will be wasted or applied in the real world.  There is a real possibility that we may someday create many more connected 'objects' than atoms spread across the earths surface with a huge % of them allocated wastefully or hoarded.  This is also assuming IPs are often "one shot deals" where they are wasted and cannot be used again for some reason.  There are many situations today where large swaths of IPv4 blocks are used once and then abandonded and hoarded by companies who are accumulating millions of them through ISP and resource buyouts.  The idea of IPs being a one shot deal signficantly acceletates loss.





On 10/18/2014 7:02 AM, Morizot Timothy S wrote:

Peter//MetanetHosting.com wrote:


True,

I think it unwise to assume there will be no shortage or hoarding.
However difficult it is to foresee, the next 25 years may experience
radical technological breakthroughs which may once again limit
IPv6 availability and put us squarely back where we are with IPv4.


That actually represents a failure to grasp the scope of the mathematics involved. My non-IT physics/math son grasped it immediately when I described the problem with IPv4 and the solution.  In fact, his first question when I described the solution was why they didn't go with 2^64 instead of 2^128 since the latter represents more than the number of particles in some very large set I have to confess I don't specifically recall. When I explained it's actually 2^64 networks each capable of having up to 2^64 hosts so you never have to worry about running out of networks or space on an individual network, that made perfect sense to him.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if some radical (or perhaps even incremental) technological breakthroughs made IPv6 obsolete for some reason sometime in the next 25-50 years, but it won't be because we're running out of address space.

Scott

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