[arin-discuss] [arin-announce] Community Consultation: Future Direction for the ARIN Fee Schedule

[Peter//MetanetHosting.com]

This thinking is naive.   It is very possible that even 10000 /48s will 
not be enough for every indivdual (or robot) alive.  A big issue is how 
the space will be wasted or applied in the real world.  There is a real 
possibility that we may someday create many more connected 'objects' 
than atoms spread across the earths surface with a huge % of them 
allocated wastefully or hoarded.  This is also assuming IPs are often 
"one shot deals" where they are wasted and cannot be used again for some 
reason.  There are many situations today where large swaths of IPv4 
blocks are used once and then abandonded and hoarded by companies who 
are accumulating millions of them through ISP and resource buyouts.  The 
idea of IPs being a one shot deal signficantly acceletates loss.





On 10/18/2014 7:02 AM, Morizot Timothy S wrote:
> Peter//MetanetHosting.com wrote:
>> True,
>>
>> I think it unwise to assume there will be no shortage or hoarding.
>> However difficult it is to foresee, the next 25 years may experience
>> radical technological breakthroughs which may once again limit
>> IPv6 availability and put us squarely back where we are with IPv4.
> That actually represents a failure to grasp the scope of the mathematics involved. My non-IT physics/math son grasped it immediately when I described the problem with IPv4 and the solution.  In fact, his first question when I described the solution was why they didn't go with 2^64 instead of 2^128 since the latter represents more than the number of particles in some very large set I have to confess I don't specifically recall. When I explained it's actually 2^64 networks each capable of having up to 2^64 hosts so you never have to worry about running out of networks or space on an individual network, that made perfect sense to him.
>
> It wouldn't surprise me at all if some radical (or perhaps even incremental) technological breakthroughs made IPv6 obsolete for some reason sometime in the next 25-50 years, but it won't be because we're running out of address space.
>
> Scott
>
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