[arin-ppml] fair warning: less than 1000 days left toIPv4 exhaustion

Please no one disabuse the messenger....

Geoff disclaims certainty in the 1000 days scenario...and of course most clear see the numbers and estimates for what they are.

But, given that we can see the bottom of the pool and + or - 1 1/2 years, it's 3....then that should offer very little consolation to those who think 3 is concrete.

The range 1.5-4.5 is perhaps scarier....

bd

-----Original Message-----
From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net on behalf of Geoff Huston
Sent: Sat 5/3/2008 10:02 PM
To: Paul Vixie
Cc: ppml at arin.net
Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] fair warning: less than 1000 days left toIPv4	exhaustion
 
I keep on saying: its just a mathematical model, and the way this will play
out is invariably different from our best guesses. So to say "well there's 
x days to go" is somewhat misleading as it appears to vest this model
with some air of authority about the future, and that's not a good idea!

The salient observation, made here and in other places, is that address
allocation is a rather skewed distribution. Most address allocations are 
relatively small, but a small number of them are relatively large. Its the
the timing of this smaller set of actors who are undertaking large
deployments that will ultimately determine how this plays out. It could be
a lot faster than 1000 days, or it could be slower - its very uncertain,
There could be some "last minute rush." There could be a change in policies
over remaining address pools as the pool diminishes, or ....

So, yes, the pool is visibly draining and you now can see all the way to
the bottom! And it looks like there are around 3 years to go ... 
but thats with an uncertainty factor of at least +/- about 1 1/2 years!

    Geoff



Paul Vixie wrote:
> from nanog, which means most ppml'ers have seen it, but some not.  there was
> the usual set of responses from the usual people, mostly sarcastic.  re:
> 
> 
> 
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> Subject:
> [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion
> From:
> mleber at he.net (Mike Leber)
> Date:
> Fri, 2 May 2008 11:51:43 -0700 (PDT)
> 
> Newsgroups:
> local.mail.net.nanog
> 
> 
> Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected
> until IPv4 exhaustion:
> 
> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
> 
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