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<TITLE>RE: [arin-ppml] fair warning: less than 1000 days left toIPv4 exhaustion</TITLE>
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<P><FONT SIZE=2>Please no one disabuse the messenger....<BR>
<BR>
Geoff disclaims certainty in the 1000 days scenario...and of course most clear see the numbers and estimates for what they are.<BR>
<BR>
But, given that we can see the bottom of the pool and + or - 1 1/2 years, it's 3....then that should offer very little consolation to those who think 3 is concrete.<BR>
<BR>
The range 1.5-4.5 is perhaps scarier....<BR>
<BR>
bd<BR>
<BR>
-----Original Message-----<BR>
From: arin-ppml-bounces@arin.net on behalf of Geoff Huston<BR>
Sent: Sat 5/3/2008 10:02 PM<BR>
To: Paul Vixie<BR>
Cc: ppml@arin.net<BR>
Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] fair warning: less than 1000 days left toIPv4 exhaustion<BR>
<BR>
I keep on saying: its just a mathematical model, and the way this will play<BR>
out is invariably different from our best guesses. So to say "well there's<BR>
x days to go" is somewhat misleading as it appears to vest this model<BR>
with some air of authority about the future, and that's not a good idea!<BR>
<BR>
The salient observation, made here and in other places, is that address<BR>
allocation is a rather skewed distribution. Most address allocations are<BR>
relatively small, but a small number of them are relatively large. Its the<BR>
the timing of this smaller set of actors who are undertaking large<BR>
deployments that will ultimately determine how this plays out. It could be<BR>
a lot faster than 1000 days, or it could be slower - its very uncertain,<BR>
There could be some "last minute rush." There could be a change in policies<BR>
over remaining address pools as the pool diminishes, or ....<BR>
<BR>
So, yes, the pool is visibly draining and you now can see all the way to<BR>
the bottom! And it looks like there are around 3 years to go ...<BR>
but thats with an uncertainty factor of at least +/- about 1 1/2 years!<BR>
<BR>
Geoff<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
Paul Vixie wrote:<BR>
> from nanog, which means most ppml'ers have seen it, but some not. there was<BR>
> the usual set of responses from the usual people, mostly sarcastic. re:<BR>
><BR>
><BR>
><BR>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>
><BR>
> Subject:<BR>
> [NANOG] fair warning: less than 1000 days left to IPv4 exhaustion<BR>
> From:<BR>
> mleber@he.net (Mike Leber)<BR>
> Date:<BR>
> Fri, 2 May 2008 11:51:43 -0700 (PDT)<BR>
><BR>
> Newsgroups:<BR>
> local.mail.net.nanog<BR>
><BR>
><BR>
> Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected<BR>
> until IPv4 exhaustion:<BR>
><BR>
> <A HREF="http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/">http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/</A><BR>
><BR>
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